目录Contents
工作台：M31 的星系周介质（New-ANGELS III）Workbench: the circumgalactic medium of M31 (New-ANGELS III)
评审更新（2026-10-14 17:30 UTC）：本页写成后 E013 A2 v1（谱联合空间似然，14 主场）已完成：无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07）。集中式 M31 β 晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc，MW 常数）在 R = 20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限为 0.05–0.18（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²，吸收 0.5–2 keV），Zhang 2024 叠加的 0.83 被排除 ≳5 倍；r_c = 30 kpc 时上限 0.34–0.62，r_c = 50 kpc 不受约束。Provisional：边界阈值 2.71 尚未用模拟校准，A1b 与 E020 的稳健性检验未完成。来源：cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md；newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_beta_limits.csv。
Review update (2026-10-14 17:30 UTC): after this page was written, E013 A2 v1 (spectral joint spatial likelihood, 14 primary fields) finished. No M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07). For a concentrated M31 β halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc, MW constant), the one-sided 95% upper limit at R = 20 kpc is 0.05–0.18 (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻², absorbed 0.5–2 keV), so the Zhang 2024 stack value 0.83 is excluded by ≳5x. At r_c = 30 kpc the limit is 0.34–0.62; at r_c = 50 kpc it is unconstrained. Provisional: the 2.71 boundary threshold is not yet simulation-calibrated, and the A1b and E020 robustness checks are pending. Source: cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md; newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_beta_limits.csv.
这是什么项目？What is this project?
M31（仙女座星系）是离我们最近的大型旋涡星系。宇宙学认为星系的大部分普通物质（重子）不在星系内部，而在星系周围几十万光年的星系周介质（CGM）——百万度的稀薄气体。本项目用 XMM-Newton 的 22 个指向（proposal 080073，PI J. Li）在 M31 内晕（投影半径 10.5–30.8 kpc）逐视线测量弥漫软 X 射线发射，把「银河系前景 + M31 内晕」的总和（记号 CGMsum）测准，再用空间形状限制其中有多少属于 M31。测量已冻结（D48，2026-10-14）：14 个主样本场的 CGMsum 吸收流量为 0.965 ± 0.044（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²），共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV。
M31 (Andromeda) is the nearest large spiral galaxy. Cosmology says most of a galaxy's ordinary matter (baryons) is not inside the galaxy but in the circumgalactic medium (CGM), million-degree thin gas around it. Using 22 XMM-Newton pointings (proposal 080073, PI J. Li) toward the M31 inner halo (projected radii 10.5–30.8 kpc), this project measures the diffuse soft X-ray emission sightline by sightline, pins down the sum "Milky Way foreground + M31 inner halo" (notation CGMsum), and then limits how much belongs to M31 from its spatial shape. The measurement is frozen (D48, 2026-10-14): the 14 primary fields give CGMsum absorbed flux 0.965 ± 0.044 (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²), common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV.
来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48；cognition-os/insights/I033（0.965 ± 0.044，χ²=11.99/13）。
Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48; cognition-os/insights/I033 (0.965 ± 0.044, χ²=11.99/13).
现在进展如何？Where does it stand?
测量冻结；v19 基线（14 场）可信；轮廓在 10.5–29 kpc 内平（χ²=11.99/13）。E014 完成；E016 完成（未解源软热分量 ≈0.15 F，仅气体的总和 ≈0.82）；E018a 完成（重收敛 + SP 谱形自由后外 NW/对照比值 1.13 ≈ 1σ）；E013 A1 曲面完成（20/20）；E013 A2（谱联合似然，权威 M31 上限）在跑，结果待定。
The measurement is frozen; the v19 baseline (14 fields) is trusted; the profile is flat over 10.5–29 kpc (χ²=11.99/13). E014 done; E016 done (unresolved-source soft-thermal term ≈0.15 F; gas-only total ≈0.82); E018a done (after re-convergence and a free SP shape the outer-NW/control ratio is 1.13 ≈ 1σ); E013 A1 surfaces done (20/20); E013 A2 (the spectral joint likelihood, the authoritative M31 limit) is running, results Pending.
还有什么没解决？What is unsolved?
① 前景与 M31 谱形几乎相同，无法按距离分解（E013 A2 用空间形状给出权威上限，运行中）；② 外 NW 四场偏亮：E014 排除大尺度天空与 OMNI 太阳风；E018a 表明它大部分是拟合伪迹（重收敛 + SP 谱形自由后比值 1.13 ≈ 1σ）；③ v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形过刚（4/8 场 Δstat 3.8–10.2）、仪器线能量钉在边界（0601 MOS1 InstLine3.LineE 1.25 keV，Δstat −14.7）——E020 样本级重收敛在跑；④ PSF 翼泄漏（掩膜源的翼，模型估计 ≈0.12 F）未经实测——E019 排队；⑤ Locatelli 预言 1.29 > 0.965（E016 的仅气体总和 ≈0.82 使紧张更强）；⑥ 300 kpc 图未开始。
(i) The foreground and M31 have nearly identical spectra, so distance separation fails (E013 A2 derives the authoritative limit from spatial shape; running); (ii) the bright outer-NW four: E014 excluded large-scale sky and OMNI solar wind; E018a shows much of it is a fitting artefact (after re-convergence and a free SP shape the ratio is 1.13 ≈ 1σ); (iii) v19 fit QA: the SP shape is too rigid (Δstat 3.8–10.2 in 4/8 fields) and instrumental-line energies are pinned at boundaries (0601 MOS1 InstLine3.LineE at 1.25 keV, Δstat −14.7) — the sample-wide re-convergence E020 is running; (iv) the PSF-wing leak of masked sources (a model estimate, ≈0.12 F) is untested — E019 queued; (v) Locatelli predicts 1.29 > 0.965 (E016's gas-only total ≈0.82 strengthens the tension); (vi) the 300-kpc map has not started.
下一步做什么？What do I do next?
按 编号计划：E013 A2（运行中）→ E020 → E019 → E018b → E015 → E017；E014/E016/E018a/E013-A1 已完成。命令见 byhand。
Plan: E013 A2 (running) → E020 → E019 → E018b → E015 → E017; E014/E016/E018a/E013-A1 are done. Commands at byhand.
最新骨架：流水线与各部分如何衔接Latest skeleton: the pipeline and how the parts connect
来源：流程依据 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md 与 background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py 的模型结构；数值见 cognition-os/insights/I033。
Source: the flow follows cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md and the model structure of background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py; numbers from cognition-os/insights/I033.
目标表（O1–O5）Objectives (O1–O5)
| 目标Objective | 状态Status | 当前最好数值（估计器已命名）Best current number (estimator named) | 趋势Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| O1 M31 内晕方向冷视线总和（CGMsum）的测量Total cool line-of-sight emission (CGMsum) toward the M31 inner halo | done | 14 场逆方差平均：吸收 0.5–2 keV 流量 0.965 ± 0.044；共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV（v19，局部协方差误差）14-field inverse-variance mean: absorbed 0.5–2 keV flux 0.965 ± 0.044; common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV (v19, local-covariance errors) | →冻结frozen |
| O2 由轮廓形状约束集中式 M31 热晕的大小/幅度Constrain the size/amplitude of a concentrated M31 hot halo from the profile shape | provisional | 快速流量级检验（I033）：β 模型（r_c=4 kpc）在 R=20 kpc 的近似 95% 上限，MW 常数版 0.05–0.12（β=0.4/0.5/0.6；D49 后的默认版本——MW 线性 b 版 0.08–0.19 所依赖的纬度梯度已被 E014 排除）；Zhang 叠加预期 0.83。谱联合似然版本 E013 A2 待定（A1 曲面 20/20 完成）Quick flux-level check (I033): approximate 95% upper limit on a beta model (r_c=4 kpc) at R=20 kpc; the MW-constant version gives 0.05–0.12 (β=0.4/0.5/0.6; the default after D49 — the MW linear-in-b version, 0.08–0.19, relied on the latitude gradient that E014 excluded); Zhang stack predicts 0.83. The spectral joint-likelihood version, E013 A2, is Pending (A1 surfaces 20/20 complete) | ↗ |
| O3 外 NW 亮场的起源Origin of the bright outer-NW fields | E014 + E018a done | 外 NW 四场/对照四场加权平均比值（逆方差，v19 权重）：v19 1.295 → 重收敛（A）1.168 → SP 谱形自由（B）1.130（σ≈0.13，≈1σ——与对照持平）。E014（D49）：RASS 比值 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28（无大尺度结构）；OMNI 无窗口超 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹（非 SWCX）。0601 的 v19 未收敛（Δstat −14.7，MOS1 InstLine3.LineE 钉在 1.25 keV）；0301 流量近简并（0.975→0.56，Δstat −0.04）。D49 的 0.25 系统误差可望缩到 ≈0.1（待 E013 曲面与 E020）Outer-NW four / control four weighted-mean ratio (inverse variance, v19 weights): v19 1.295 → re-converged (A) 1.168 → free SP shape (B) 1.130 (σ≈0.13, ≈1σ — no significant difference from the controls). E014 (D49): RASS ratio 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28 (no large-scale sky); no OMNI window above 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹ (not SWCX). v19 was not converged for 0601 (Δstat −14.7, MOS1 InstLine3.LineE pinned at 1.25 keV); 0301's flux is near-degenerate (0.975→0.56 at Δstat −0.04). D49's 0.25 systematic can shrink to ≈0.1 pending the E013 surfaces and E020 | ↗ |
| O4 银河系前景模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验（300 kpc 图）MW foreground model + Local Hot Bridge test (300-kpc map) | 计划planned | 尚无新数值。Locatelli 模型在 M31 足迹投影 1.290 vs 测量 0.965（残差 −0.326，模型紧张）；E016 后仅气体的总和 ≈0.82（高括号 0.69），紧张更强；Ueda 0.312、HaloSat 0.565No new number yet. Locatelli model projected at the M31 footprint: 1.290 vs measured 0.965 (residual −0.326, a model tension); after E016 the gas-only total is ≈0.82 (0.69 at the high bracket), strengthening the tension; Ueda 0.312, HaloSat 0.565 | → |
| O5 New-ANGELS III 论文The New-ANGELS III manuscript | draft | 16 页内部稿完成（AASTeX，5 表 3 图）；提交门槛见 I013（径向+侧向联合似然、边界感知区间、系统误差网格等）A 16-page internal draft exists (AASTeX, 5 tables, 3 figures); submission gates in I013 (shared radial-plus-side likelihood, boundary-aware intervals, the systematic grid, ...) | ↗ |
来源：O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 与 I033；O2/O3 cognition-os/insights/I033、newangels3_discussion/quick_shape_limit_20261014.txt 与 cognition-os/experiments/E018a（比值 1.295→1.168→1.130 由 fits_per_field.csv 以 v19 权重复算）；O4 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（D42–D46 数值）、02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md 与 cognition-os/experiments/E016（仅气体 0.82/0.69）；O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 与 paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md。
Source: O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 and I033; O2/O3 cognition-os/insights/I033, newangels3_discussion/quick_shape_limit_20261014.txt and cognition-os/experiments/E018a (the 1.295→1.168→1.130 ratios recomputed from fits_per_field.csv with v19 weights); O4 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (D42–D46 numbers), 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md and cognition-os/experiments/E016 (gas-only 0.82/0.69); O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 and paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md.
未解问题表Open problems
| 问题Problem | 为什么重要Why it matters | 当前最佳假设Best current hypothesis | 下一个检验Next test | 负责Owner | 状态Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW 与 M31 气体同温同形，EPIC 谱无法按距离分解（I006）MW and M31 gas share temperature and spectral shape; EPIC spectra cannot separate them by distance (I006) | 决定论文能声明什么：只能测总和 CGMsum，任何分量归属都需要外部假设Determines what the paper can claim: only the sum CGMsum is measured; any component split needs external assumptions | 分离只能来自空间形状（半径衰减、南北对称）与外部前景约束Separation can only come from spatial shape (radial decline, N/S symmetry) and external foreground constraints | E013 A2 联合空间似然（A1 曲面已完成 20/20；A2 运行中）E013 A2 joint spatial likelihood (A1 surfaces done 20/20; A2 running) | E013 | A2 运行中A2 running |
| 轮廓平（χ²=11.99/13）：M31 集中晕 ≤0.05–0.12 @20 kpc（MW 常数版，D49 后默认），远低于 Zhang 叠加 0.83The profile is flat (χ²=11.99/13): a concentrated M31 halo is ≤0.05–0.12 at 20 kpc (MW-constant version, the default after D49), far below the Zhang stack 0.83 | M31 内晕热气要么比叠加预期暗几倍，要么在 10–30 kpc 内分布很平（核 ≳30 kpc）M31's inner-halo hot gas is either several times fainter than the stacked expectation, or flat over 10–30 kpc (core ≳30 kpc) | M31 内晕热气比叠加均值暗，或与 MW/LG 退化为平背景M31 inner-halo gas is fainter than the stack mean, or degenerate with a flat MW/LG background | E013 A2 用谱似然复核上限（权威版本，运行中）；E016 的未解源项空间上平，不削弱形状上限E013 A2 re-derives the limit with the spectral likelihood (the authoritative version; running); E016's unresolved-source terms are spatially flat, so they do not weaken the shape limit | E013 | provisional |
| 外 NW 四场偏亮（v19 外四/对照四 = 1.295 ± 0.132）The four outer-NW fields are bright (v19 outer-four/control-four = 1.295 ± 0.132) | 若为银河系纬度结构，会挤占 M31 的解释空间；若为 SWCX 则是时间效应；若为仪器/软质子则影响系统误差预算If it is Galactic-latitude structure it eats into the M31 budget; if SWCX it is a time effect; if instrumental/soft-proton it changes the systematic budget | E014 已排除大尺度天空（RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28）与 OMNI 太阳风；E018a 表明大半是拟合伪迹：重收敛 + SP 谱形自由后比值 1.13 ± 0.13（≈1σ，与对照持平）——非收敛（0601 Δstat −14.7，仪器线能量钉边）、过刚的 SP 谱形（4/8 场 Δstat 3.8–10.2）、近简并的 0301（0.975→0.56，Δstat −0.04）E014 excluded large-scale sky (RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28) and OMNI solar wind; E018a shows most of it is a fitting artefact: after re-convergence and a free SP shape the ratio is 1.13 ± 0.13 (≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls) — non-convergence (0601 Δstat −14.7, a line energy pinned at its boundary), a too-rigid SP shape (Δstat 3.8–10.2 in 4/8 fields), and a near-degenerate 0301 (0.975→0.56 at Δstat −0.04) | E020 样本级重收敛（SP 谱形 + 线能量自由，运行中）；如仍有残余，E018b（Virgo ODF 级更严耀斑过滤）E020 sample-wide re-convergence (free SP shape and line energies; running); if a residual remains, E018b (stricter ODF-level flare filter on Virgo) | E018a/E020 | closing |
| v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形过刚、仪器线能量钉在边界（E018a/E013）v19 fit QA: the SP shape is too rigid and instrumental-line energies are pinned at boundaries (E018a/E013) | 决定系统误差网格里必须有哪一行（I013 提交门槛 3）；不修会以场级伪迹污染科学结论Decides which row the systematic grid must contain (I013 submission gate 3); unfixed, it contaminates science with field-level artefacts | v19 的 SP 折断幂律（BreakE=3.2、PhoIndx2 冻结）在 4/8 场过刚（Δstat 3.8–10.2）；0601 MOS1 InstLine3.LineE 钉在 1.25 keV（Δstat −14.7，CGMsum 通量不受影响）；E014 B3 表里还有钉在 1.40 keV 上限的线能量v19's SP broken power law (BreakE=3.2, PhoIndx2 frozen) is too rigid in 4/8 fields (Δstat 3.8–10.2); 0601 MOS1 InstLine3.LineE is pinned at 1.25 keV (Δstat −14.7, the CGMsum flux unaffected); E014's B3 table shows more line energies at the 1.40 keV maximum | E020：全部 18 技术通过场，模型 A/B/C（C = B + 线能量 ±0.15 keV 自由）多元起始重收敛 + Δstat=1 剖面误差（运行中）E020: all 18 technical-pass fields, Models A/B/C (C = B + line energies freed within ±0.15 keV) with multi-start re-convergence plus Δstat=1 profile errors (running) | E020 | 运行中running |
| PSF 翼泄漏：掩膜亮源的翼落在提取区里（E016）PSF-wing leak: the wings of masked bright sources fall inside the extraction region (E016) | E016 里它是最大的单一未解源项（模型估计 ≈0.12 F [最大 0.32]，主要是幂律）；若实测偏大，会压低「仅气体」的总和并改变系统误差预算In E016 it is the single largest unresolved-source term (model estimate ≈0.12 F [max 0.32], mostly power law); if the empirical value is larger it lowers the gas-only total and changes the systematic budget | King 模型的翼估计（Read & Rosen 2011）尚未实测；密集掩膜场里的首次经验检验失败（需要远场像素）the King-model wing estimate (Read & Rosen 2011) is untested; a first empirical test in dense-mask fields failed (far-field pixels needed) | E019：对 v19 场里被掩膜的亮源做叠加径向剖面（需要事件文件/图像；排队）E019: a stacked radial profile around the masked bright sources in the v19 fields (needs event files/images; queued) | E019 | 排队queued |
| Locatelli MW 模型在 M31 方向预言 1.29 > 测量 0.965The Locatelli MW model predicts 1.29 > the measured 0.965 toward M31 | 若模型对，则无正的 M31 中心残差；紧张来自模型、转换或吸收之一If the model is right there is no non-negative central M31 residual; the tension lies in the model, the conversion, or absorption | 模型高估、线-宽带转换失配、或 v19 总和偏低（三种解释并列）Model over-prediction, line-to-band conversion mismatch, or a low-biased v19 sum (three live explanations) | 300 kpc RASS 图建立本地 MW 模型（O4）A 300-kpc RASS map to build a local MW model (O4) | 计划planned | 计划planned |
| 南北差异 0.212 ± 0.210（1.01σ）——一致性，不是非对称探测North-minus-South 0.212 ± 0.210 (1.01σ) — consistency, not an asymmetry detection | 非对称上限是论文的直接结果之一；两侧半径分布不匹配（中位 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc）The asymmetry limit is one of the paper's direct results; the two sides have unmatched radius distributions (medians 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc) | 总和在两侧一致；任何分量级非对称结论都需要 MW 均匀或 M31 对称假设The sum is consistent between sides; any component-level asymmetry claim needs MW-uniformity or M31-symmetry assumptions | 共享径向项 + 侧向偏移的联合拟合（I013 提交门槛 1）A joint fit with a shared radial term plus a side offset (I013 submission gate 1) | 计划planned | 计划planned |
来源：cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/insights/I033、I006、I012、I017；cognition-os/experiments/E013、E014、E016、E018a；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（E019/E020/E018b/E015/E017 队列）；.agent/jobs/2026-10-14-e020-sample-reconverge/BRIEF.md（模型 C 定义）；03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行（SP 谱形、局部协方差、线能量 QA）。
Source: cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/insights/I033, I006, I012, I017; cognition-os/experiments/E013, E014, E016, E018a; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the E019/E020/E018b/E015/E017 queue); .agent/jobs/2026-10-14-e020-sample-reconverge/BRIEF.md (the Model C definition); the last rows of 03_TRUST_TABLE.md (SP shape, local covariance, line-energy QA).
未来 1–4 周计划（依据 D48 与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (from D48 and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION)
数据：newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv（E018a，luna，Claude 已核）；比值 1.295/1.168/1.130 由本站用 v19 权重从该 CSV 复算。图由 handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py 生成。
Data: newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv (E018a, luna, Claude-checked); the 1.295/1.168/1.130 ratios recomputed by this site from that CSV with v19 weights. Figure made by handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py.
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E013 A1（已完成，2026-10-14）：20 个冻结 v19 会话的逐场 (kT, norm) Δstat 曲面全部完成（20/20，恢复回归 20/20，通量比 18/18 在 0.99–1.01，0 失败拟合；六个场的剖面区间比局部协方差窄 2–12 倍）。产出
newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/surfaces/*.csv与acceptance.json。后续 A1b：为 0701/0801/1101/1901/2001/2301 在极小值附近加密 norm 网格。 E013 A1 (done, 2026-10-14): per-field (kT, norm) Δstat surfaces for all 20 restorable v19 sessions (20/20 complete, restore regression 20/20, flux ratio 18/18 within 0.99–1.01, 0 failed fits; six fields have profile intervals 2–12× narrower than the local covariance). Outputsnewangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/surfaces/*.csvandacceptance.json. Follow-up A1b: densify the norm grid near the minima of 0701/0801/1101/1901/2001/2301. - E013 A2（Claude，运行中）：在曲面上插值联合似然 Σ Δstat_i(kT, N_MW(b_i)+A·g(r_i))，对 N_MW、梯度、kT 做 profile，A=0 边界用模拟校准单侧上限——权威的 M31 β 上限。结果待定。 E013 A2 (Claude, running): interpolate the joint likelihood Σ Δstat_i(kT, N_MW(b_i)+A·g(r_i)) on the surfaces, profile over N_MW, the gradient and kT, and calibrate one-sided limits at the A=0 boundary by simulation — the authoritative M31 beta limit. Results Pending.
- E020（luna，运行中）：样本级重收敛——全部 18 技术通过场，模型 A（v19 重收敛）/B（+SP 谱形自由）/C（+仪器线能量 ±0.15 keV 自由），多元起始；C 的误差用 Δstat=1 剖面（不用局部协方差）。这是系统误差网格的「SP 谱形 + 线 QA」行。 E020 (luna, running): the sample-wide re-convergence — all 18 technical-pass fields, Models A (v19 re-converged)/B (+ free SP shape)/C (+ line energies freed within ±0.15 keV), multi-start; C's errors are Δstat=1 profiles (not local covariance). This is the systematic-grid row "SP shape + line QA".
- E019（排队）：PSF 翼泄漏的实测检验——对 v19 场里被掩膜的亮源做叠加径向剖面（E016 的翼项 ≈0.12 F 是模型估计）。需要事件文件/图像。 E019 (queued): the empirical PSF-wing leak test — a stacked radial profile around the masked bright sources in the v19 fields (E016's wing term ≈0.12 F is a model estimate). Needs event files/images.
- E018b（D49，停放）：对外 NW 四场在 Virgo 按 ODF 级更严格耀斑过滤重处理，再按 v19 规则重拟。 E018b (D49, parked): reprocess the outer-NW four on Virgo with a stricter ODF-level flare filter, then refit under v19 rules.
- E015（排队）：M31 周围 25° 的 RASS 原生计数图（MW 纬度模型 + M31 中心项 + LHB 模板），为本地 MW 模型与 Local Hot Bridge 检验（O4）铺路。 E015 (queued): a 25° native-count RASS map around M31 (MW latitude model + an M31-centred term + an LHB template), paving the way for the local MW model and the Local Hot Bridge test (O4).
- E017（排队）：用 Paper I 星表重新定义源掩膜（闭掉 I013 提交门槛 5 的掩膜规则出处）。 E017 (queued): re-define the source mask from the Paper I catalogue (closes the mask-rule provenance of I013 submission gate 5).
- 论文讨论：把 I033 的三条科学线（总和、轮廓形状、NW 起源）与 E016/E018a 的新结果写进 New-ANGELS III 草稿的讨论部分；提交门槛仍按 I013。 Paper discussion: write the three I033 science lines (total, profile shape, NW origin) plus the new E016/E018a results into the New-ANGELS III draft discussion; submission gates remain those of I013.
来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48）；cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md；cognition-os/experiments/E013、E014、E016、E018a；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（队列）；.agent/jobs/2026-10-14-e020-sample-reconverge/BRIEF.md；newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json；cognition-os/insights/I013。
Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48); cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md; cognition-os/experiments/E013, E014, E016, E018a; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the queue); .agent/jobs/2026-10-14-e020-sample-reconverge/BRIEF.md; newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json; cognition-os/insights/I013.
本次更新What's new
- 2026-10-14（第 2 次刷新）：E018a 完成——外 NW 超出大半是拟合伪迹：重收敛 + SP 谱形自由后外四/对照四比值 1.295 → 1.168 → 1.130（σ≈0.13，≈1σ，与对照持平）；0601 的 Δstat −14.7 来自 MOS1 InstLine3.LineE 钉在 1.25 keV；D49 的 0.25 系统误差可望缩到 ≈0.1。新图 fig_e018a_fluxes.png。 2026-10-14 (refresh 2): E018a done — much of the outer-NW excess is a fitting artefact: after re-convergence and a free SP shape the outer-four/control-four ratio goes 1.295 → 1.168 → 1.130 (σ≈0.13, ≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls); 0601's Δstat −14.7 comes from MOS1 InstLine3.LineE pinned at 1.25 keV; D49's 0.25 systematic can shrink to ≈0.1. New figure fig_e018a_fluxes.png.
- 2026-10-14：E016 完成——未解点源的软热分量 ≈0.15 F（高括号 0.28），空间上平（不削弱形状上限），仅气体的 CGMsum 总和 ≈0.82（0.69），Locatelli 紧张更强；最大的单一不确定项是 PSF 翼泄漏（≈0.12 F，模型估计）→ E019 排队。 2026-10-14: E016 done — the unresolved-source soft-thermal term is ≈0.15 F (0.28 at the high bracket), spatially flat (it does not weaken the shape limit); the gas-only CGMsum total is ≈0.82 (0.69), strengthening the Locatelli tension; the single largest uncertain term is the PSF-wing leak (≈0.12 F, a model estimate) → E019 queued.
- 2026-10-14：E013 A1 完成——20/20 场的 (kT, norm) Δstat 曲面（恢复回归 20/20，0 失败拟合；0601 的网格极小值比 v19 低 12.2，再次证实未收敛）；A2（权威 M31 β 上限）运行中，结果待定。 2026-10-14: E013 A1 done — (kT, norm) Δstat surfaces for 20/20 fields (restore regression 20/20, 0 failed fits; 0601's grid minimum beats the v19 fit by 12.2, confirming the non-convergence); A2 (the authoritative M31 beta limit) is running, results Pending.
- 2026-10-14：E020 启动——样本级（18 场）SP 谱形 + 线能量自由的重收敛（系统误差网格「SP shape + line QA」行），运行中。 2026-10-14: E020 launched — the sample-wide (18-field) re-convergence with free SP shape and line energies (the systematic-grid row "SP shape + line QA"), running.
- 2026-10-14：E014 完成，D49 落笔：外 NW 超出不是大尺度天空（RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28），不是 OMNI 太阳风（无窗口超 4e8），软质子相关性未确立（Spearman +0.35，p=0.22）；四场记为未解释场级系统误差（~0.25）。 2026-10-14: E014 finished and D49 recorded: the outer-NW excess is not large-scale sky (RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28), not OMNI-traced solar wind (no window above 4e8), and the soft-proton correlation is not established (Spearman +0.35, p=0.22); the four fields are carried as an unexplained field-level systematic (~0.25).
- 2026-10-14：D48 冻结 v19 测量；论文定名 New-ANGELS III；Kavanagh 2020 更正（其区域是盘内背景，不是晕视线）。 2026-10-14: D48 freezes the v19 measurement; the paper is named New-ANGELS III; the Kavanagh 2020 correction (their regions are disc-adjacent backgrounds, not halo sightlines).
- 2026-10-14：本工作台（handbook）首次建成。 2026-10-14: this workbench (handbook) was first built.
来源：cognition-os/experiments/E018a（「Reading」节）、E016、E013；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48、D49；cognition-os/insights/I033；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md。
Source: cognition-os/experiments/E018a (the "Reading" section), E016, E013; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48 and D49; cognition-os/insights/I033; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md.
数据截至Data as of
2026-10-14T14:50Z（最新读到的来源：cognition-os/experiments/E018a_soft_proton_shape_free_refit.md（含 correction 1）；cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md；newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json；cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（14:4xZ 心跳）newest source read: cognition-os/experiments/E018a_soft_proton_shape_free_refit.md (with correction 1); cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md; newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json; the last rows of cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the 14:4xZ heartbeat)）