M31 CGM 工作台M31 CGM / New-ANGELS III

评审更新（Claude，2026-10-15 23:15Z）：(1) 红队 RT-03 已分诊：「外场比内场暗」不稳健。干净外样本的 IVW 有 27% 权重来自单一场（0884992601），样本过度离散（χ²/dof 2.3）；随机效应模型给外/内 = 0.94 ± 0.11（全部 23 场 0.89 ± 0.08），逐一剔除时 0.83–0.99。稳妥说法是外场与内场在约 10–15% 内一致。E022 的平坦 M31 项上限仍成立，写作 ≲ 0.4–0.46（2σ）。(2) A1d 的门槛检查发现，红队 RT-02 报的「重拟合 19.8」来自其脚本 bug；0601 卡点在 v19 模型下正确重拟合为 ≤ 26.25（A1 为 38.7），卡点仍然存在。本页正文已按此改正。
来源：cognition-os/experiments/E025_outer_classB_fits.md（RT-03 triage）；newangels3_discussion/E013_A1d_codexnim/gates/red_team_source_audit.json

Review update (Claude, 2026-10-15 23:15Z): (1) Red team RT-03 has been triaged: "the outer fields are fainter than the inner ones" is not robust. 27% of the clean outer IVW weight comes from one field (0884992601), and the sample is overdispersed (χ²/dof 2.3); a random-effects model gives outer/inner = 0.94 ± 0.11 (all 23 fields 0.89 ± 0.08), and leaving one field out gives 0.83–0.99. The safe statement is that outer and inner agree within about 10–15%. E022's bound on a flat M31 term still holds, written as ≲ 0.4–0.46 (2σ). (2) The A1d gate check found that red team RT-02's "refit 19.8" came from a bug in its script; a correct v19-model refit of the 0601 stuck point gives ≤ 26.25 (A1 has 38.7), so the stuck point is real. The page text has been corrected accordingly.
Source: cognition-os/experiments/E025_outer_classB_fits.md (RT-03 triage); newangels3_discussion/E013_A1d_codexnim/gates/red_team_source_audit.json

目录Contents

工作台：M31 的星系周介质（New-ANGELS III）Workbench: the circumgalactic medium of M31 (New-ANGELS III)

这是什么项目？What is this project?

M31（仙女座星系）是离我们最近的大型旋涡星系。宇宙学认为星系的大部分普通物质（重子）不在星系内部，而在星系周围几十万光年的星系周介质（CGM）——百万度的稀薄气体。本项目用 XMM-Newton 的 22 个指向（proposal 080073，PI J. Li）在 M31 内晕（投影半径 10.5–30.8 kpc）逐视线测量弥漫软 X 射线发射，把「银河系前景 + M31 内晕」的总和（记号 CGMsum）测准，再用空间形状限制其中有多少属于 M31。测量已冻结（D48，2026-10-14）：14 个主样本场的 CGMsum 吸收流量为 0.965 ± 0.044（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²），共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV。

M31 (Andromeda) is the nearest large spiral galaxy. Cosmology says most of a galaxy's ordinary matter (baryons) is not inside the galaxy but in the circumgalactic medium (CGM), million-degree thin gas around it. Using 22 XMM-Newton pointings (proposal 080073, PI J. Li) toward the M31 inner halo (projected radii 10.5–30.8 kpc), this project measures the diffuse soft X-ray emission sightline by sightline, pins down the sum "Milky Way foreground + M31 inner halo" (notation CGMsum), and then limits how much belongs to M31 from its spatial shape. The measurement is frozen (D48, 2026-10-14): the 14 primary fields give CGMsum absorbed flux 0.965 ± 0.044 (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²), common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48；cognition-os/insights/I033（0.965 ± 0.044，χ²=11.99/13）。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48; cognition-os/insights/I033 (0.965 ± 0.044, χ²=11.99/13).

现在进展如何？Where does it stand?

测量冻结；v19 基线（14 场）可信；轮廓在 10.5–29 kpc 内平（χ²=11.99/13）。E013 A2 v1 完成：无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07），集中式 M31 β 晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc，MW 常数）在 R=20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限（插值版）为 0.047–0.164，toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守）——该值正在红队审查中（RT-02）；A2 v2（模型 C 曲面，敏感性变体）给出 β = 0.5 时 r_c = 4/8/15/30 kpc 上限 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484（toy-MC 覆盖率 0.918–0.933，Δstat=2.71 在此略不保守，需校准阈值）。外样本从 8 个方向扩到 26 个已拟合方向（23 个有双侧误差）（E022 8 个 + E025 P2 18 个接受拟合，其中 3 个无有限通量误差）：干净外样本（13 场，无未掩展源）吸收流量 IVW 0.846 ± 0.059 vs 内场 0.965 ± 0.044，外/内 = 0.877 ± 0.072；含未掩展源的全部 23 场 0.831 ± 0.045；与 b、N_H 无相关。E023 完成：内+外联合拟合把大核 M31 晕在 20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限压到 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）（β = 0.5）——Zhang 叠加 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5），β = 0.6 时 r_c ≤ 200 全部排除；EAGLE fiducial 0.51 到 r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5/0.6）。红队 RT-01 已分诊：E020 模型 C 的「−15%」不是 SP 谱形系统误差——一半来自 v19 重收敛，NW 超出回到「未解释」（D49 原文生效，D49 更新撤回）；模型 C 降级为敏感性变体。A1d（v19 模型多元起始曲面，A2 的新基线）、红队 RT-02/RT-03 与 E026（28 场 Virgo 重提取）在跑，结果待定。

The measurement is frozen; the v19 baseline (14 fields) is trusted; the profile is flat over 10.5–29 kpc (χ²=11.99/13). E013 A2 v1 is done: no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07), and the one-sided 95% upper limit (interpolated) on a concentrated M31 beta halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc, MW constant) at R = 20 kpc is 0.047–0.164, with toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative) — that value is under red-team review (RT-02); A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces, a sensitivity variant) gives, for β = 0.5 at r_c = 4/8/15/30 kpc, limits of 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484 (toy-MC coverage 0.918–0.933, so the Δstat=2.71 rule is slightly anti-conservative here and needs a calibrated threshold). The outer sample has grown from 8 to 26 fitted directions (23 with two-sided errors) (E022's 8 + E025's 18 accepted P2 fits, of which 3 lack a finite flux error): the clean outer sample (13 fields without an unmasked extended target) has absorbed-flux IVW 0.846 ± 0.059 vs the inner 0.965 ± 0.044, outer/inner = 0.877 ± 0.072; all 23 fields including unmasked targets give 0.831 ± 0.045; no trend with b or N_H. E023 is done: a joint inner+outer fit limits a large-core M31 halo at 20 kpc to a one-sided 95% UL of 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) for β = 0.5 — the Zhang stack 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5), and for all r_c ≤ 200 at β = 0.6; the EAGLE fiducial 0.51 up to r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5/0.6). Red team RT-01 is triaged: E020's Model-C "−15%" is not an SP-shape systematic — about half comes from re-converging the v19 fits, and the NW excess is back to "unexplained" (D49 stands as written, the D49 update withdrawn); Model C is demoted to a sensitivity variant. A1d (v19-model multi-start surfaces, the new A2 baseline), red teams RT-02/RT-03 and E026 (28-field Virgo re-extraction) are running, results Pending.

还有什么没解决？What is unsolved?

① 前景与 M31 谱形几乎相同，无法按距离分解——集中核（r_c ≤ 8 kpc）已被 E013 A2 v1 压到 0.047–0.164（见状态页；红队 RT-02 审查中），大核（r_c ≥ 50 kpc）被 E023 首次限制（0.46–0.90 @20 kpc）；② 外 NW 四场偏亮：E014 排除大尺度天空与 OMNI 太阳风；红队 RT-01 分诊后 NW 超出回到「未解释」——固定 SP 谱形的说法不成立（等权重下模型 C 内 NW/其余仍 1.34），D49 原文生效（0.25 未解释场级系统误差），D49 更新（−15% SP 谱形系统误差）已撤回；③ v19 拟合 QA：模型 C（SP 谱形 + 线能量自由）只是敏感性变体——−15% 的 IVW 移动一半来自 v19 重收敛（A 步 −7.65%，A→B −5.29%，B→C −2.87%），且模型 C 的 SP 谱形未经物理验证（13/14 场 SP 升、MWhalo 降）；④ PSF 翼泄漏实测 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12——落在 E016 的 0.12–0.32 括号内；⑤ Locatelli 预言 1.29 > 0.965；⑥ 300 kpc 图：外样本已扩到 26 个已拟合方向（23 个有双侧误差）（干净外/内 0.877 ± 0.072），但全部在负银纬；12 个 P1 场与 10 个 P2 a+b 场的 v19 掩膜盖不住引文的展源圆（≤ 0.066），需 Virgo 重提取（E026，28 场，运行中，待定）。

(i) The foreground and M31 have nearly identical spectra, so distance separation fails — the compact core (r_c ≤ 8 kpc) is already pushed to 0.047–0.164 by E013 A2 v1 (see the state page; under red-team review RT-02), and the large core (r_c ≥ 50 kpc) is limited for the first time by E023 (0.46–0.90 at 20 kpc); (ii) the bright outer-NW four: E014 excluded large-scale sky and OMNI solar wind; after red team RT-01's triage the NW excess is back to "unexplained" — the fixed-SP-shape explanation does not hold (with equal weights NW/other stays 1.34 even under Model C), D49 stands as written (the 0.25 unexplained field-level systematic), and the D49 update (a −15% SP-shape systematic) is withdrawn; (iii) v19 fit QA: Model C (free SP shape and line energies) is only a sensitivity variant — half of the −15% IVW shift comes from re-converging the v19 fits (step A −7.65%, A→B −5.29%, B→C −2.87%), and Model C's SP shapes are not physically validated (SP up, MWhalo down in 13/14 fields); (iv) the PSF-wing leak is 0.16 (raw) / 0.33 (null-corrected) empirically vs E016's model 0.12 — inside E016's 0.12–0.32 bracket; (v) Locatelli predicts 1.29 > 0.965; (vi) the 300-kpc map: the outer sample has grown to 26 fitted directions (23 with two-sided errors) (clean outer/inner 0.877 ± 0.072) but all at negative Galactic latitude; the v19 masks of the 12 P1 fields and 10 P2 a+b fields do not cover the cited extended-target circles (≤ 0.066), so they need Virgo re-extraction (E026, 28 fields, running, Pending).

下一步做什么？What do I do next?

按 编号计划：等 A1d（v19 模型多元起始曲面，运行中）→ 在其上跑 A2 基线版（用 toy-MC 校准阈值）；在谱曲面上重做 E023；等 E026 的 28 场 Virgo 重提取 → 扩大后的内外样本联合拟合（加 MW 纬度项）；红队 RT-02（M31 上限）与 RT-03（外/内比较）分诊。已完成：E013 A2 v1 + toy MC、A2 v2（敏感性变体）、E019、E020、E021、E022、E023、E017a、V01、E024、E025、A1c、RT-01。命令见 byhand。

Plan: wait for A1d (the v19-model multi-start surfaces; running) → run the A2 baseline on them (with a toy-MC-calibrated threshold); redo E023 on spectral surfaces; wait for E026's 28-field Virgo re-extraction → a joint inner+outer fit on the enlarged sample (with an MW latitude term); red teams RT-02 (the M31 limits) and RT-03 (outer vs inner) go to triage. Done: E013 A2 v1 + toy MC, A2 v2 (a sensitivity variant), E019, E020, E021, E022, E023, E017a, V01, E024, E025, A1c, RT-01. Commands at byhand.

最新骨架：流水线与各部分如何衔接Latest skeleton: the pipeline and how the parts connect

pipeline diagram
图：从 XMM 数据到 New-ANGELS III 论文的流水线。左：数据与前景输入；中：v19 逐 ObsID Sherpa 拟合；右：冻结的 CGMsum 测量与四条解释线（联合似然、NW 交叉检验、未解源、SP 谱形重拟合）。 Figure: the pipeline from XMM data to the New-ANGELS III paper. Left: data and foreground inputs; middle: the per-ObsID v19 Sherpa fit; right: the frozen CGMsum measurement and the four interpretation lines (joint likelihood, NW cross-check, unresolved sources, SP-shape refit).

来源：流程依据 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md 与 background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py 的模型结构；数值见 cognition-os/insights/I033。

Source: the flow follows cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md and the model structure of background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py; numbers from cognition-os/insights/I033.

目标表（O1–O5）Objectives (O1–O5)

目标Objective 状态Status 当前最好数值（估计器已命名）Best current number (estimator named) 趋势Trend
O1 M31 内晕方向冷视线总和（CGMsum）的测量Total cool line-of-sight emission (CGMsum) toward the M31 inner halo done 14 场逆方差平均：吸收 0.5–2 keV 流量 0.965 ± 0.044；共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV（v19，局部协方差误差）14-field inverse-variance mean: absorbed 0.5–2 keV flux 0.965 ± 0.044; common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV (v19, local-covariance errors) →冻结frozen
O2a 由轮廓形状约束集中式 M31 热晕（小核）的大小/幅度Constrain the size/amplitude of a concentrated M31 hot halo (compact core) from the profile shape provisional 谱联合似然 E013 A2 v1（14 主场，插值版单侧 95% 上限，MW 常数，kT profile）：r_c = 4 kpc 时 β=0.4/0.5/0.6 给 0.132/0.080/0.052；r_c ≤ 8 kpc 整体 0.047–0.164；Zhang 叠加预期 0.83 被排除 ≳5 倍（各 β 为 5–18 倍）。toy-MC 校准：覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），观测上限落在 toy 中位数。正在红队审查（RT-02）：RT-02 已发现 A1（v19）曲面有优化卡住的点（0601 同点 stat 38.7 vs 在同一点正确重拟合 ≤ 26.25（红队报的 19.8 来自其脚本的参数过滤 bug）），对 A2 v1 有影响；A1d（v19 模型多元起始曲面）将修复并成为 A2 新基线。敏感性变体 A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）：β = 0.5 时 r_c = 4/8/15/30 = 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484；Zhang/上限（r_c ≤ 8）= 3.9–12 倍（β 0.4–0.6），「≳5 倍」在模型 C 下不再跨 β 成立；toy-MC 覆盖率 0.918–0.933（< 0.95，Δstat=2.71 略不保守，校准阈值待做）Spectral joint likelihood E013 A2 v1 (14 primary fields, interpolated one-sided 95% UL, MW constant, kT profiled): at r_c = 4 kpc, β=0.4/0.5/0.6 give 0.132/0.080/0.052; over r_c ≤ 8 kpc, 0.047–0.164; the Zhang stack prediction 0.83 is excluded by ≳5x (5–18x across β). Toy-MC calibration: coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), the observed limits sit at the toy median. Under red-team review (RT-02): RT-02 has found optimisation-stuck points in the A1 (v19) surfaces (0601: stat 38.7 vs ≤ 26.25 on a correct refit at the same point (the red team's 19.8 came from a parameter-filter bug in its script)), material for A2 v1; A1d (v19-model multi-start surfaces) will fix them and become the new A2 baseline. Sensitivity variant A2 v2 (Model-C surfaces): for β = 0.5 at r_c = 4/8/15/30 = 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484; Zhang/UL for r_c ≤ 8 = 3.9–12x (β 0.4–0.6), so "≳5x" no longer holds across β under Model C; toy-MC coverage 0.918–0.933 (< 0.95, the Δstat=2.71 rule slightly anti-conservative, a calibrated threshold is TODO) ↗
O2b 约束大核 M31 热晕（r_c ≥ 50 kpc，A2 够不到的区间）Constrain a large-core M31 hot halo (r_c ≥ 50 kpc, the regime A2 cannot reach) provisional E022（外场参考）+ E023（联合拟合，22 个 v19 norm，高斯似然）：β = 0.5 时 20 kpc 单侧 95% 上限 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）；内场单独拟合在 r_c ≥ 50 kpc 无约束力（r_c=100 时 3.61，r_c=200 时 13.8）。Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5），β = 0.6 时 r_c ≤ 200 全部排除；EAGLE fiducial 0.51 到 r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5/0.6）。E022 的内禀 norm 外/内 = 0.80 ± 0.13（两组样本统计均匀），平 M31 项 ≲ 0.4（≈2σ）。E025（D50 的 P1+P2）把外样本扩到 26 个已拟合方向（23 个有双侧误差）：干净外/内 = 0.877 ± 0.072。下一步：在谱曲面上重做 E023，加 MW 纬度项（红队 RT-03 审查外/内比较）E022 (the outer reference) + E023 (joint fit of the 22 v19 norms, Gaussian likelihood): for β = 0.5 the one-sided 95% UL at 20 kpc is 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200); inner-only fits are uninformative at r_c ≥ 50 kpc (3.61 at r_c=100, 13.8 at r_c=200). Zhang 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5), and for all r_c ≤ 200 at β = 0.6; the EAGLE fiducial 0.51 up to r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5/0.6). E022's intrinsic norm outer/inner = 0.80 ± 0.13 (both samples statistically homogeneous), and a flat M31 term is ≲ 0.4 (≈2σ). E025 (D50's P1+P2) has grown the outer sample to 26 fitted directions (23 with two-sided errors): clean outer/inner = 0.877 ± 0.072. Next: redo E023 on spectral surfaces with an MW latitude term (red team RT-03 reviews the outer/inner comparison) ↗
O3 外 NW 亮场的起源Origin of the bright outer-NW fields E014 + E018a + E020 + RT-01 done 红队 RT-01 分诊（2026-10-15，Claude 复核全部 6 项）：E020 模型 C 的「NW 超出大半是固定 SP 谱形伪迹」不成立——−15% 的 IVW 移动中 v19 重收敛（A 步）贡献 −7.65%、SP 谱形（A→B）−5.29%、线能量（B→C）−2.87%；用共同的模型 C 误差时 NW/其余比值 1.345（v19）→ 1.133（A）→ 1.134（C）——下降发生在重收敛，不在 SP 谱形；等权重下 1.381 → 1.274（A）→ 1.341（C），模型 C 内 NW 超出仍在。I033 第 5 条回到 Questioned；D49 原文生效（0.25 未解释场级系统误差）；D49 更新撤回；模型 C 只是敏感性变体。E014（D49）：RASS 比值 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28（无大尺度结构）；OMNI 无窗口超 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹（非 SWCX）；I034（ParetoGTICal 交叉核对）：v19 用 2.1.filter GTI，比 2.filter 更严，NW 四场没有被欠过滤——剩余耀斑时间不是解释；稳态 SP 对 GTI 不可见，E018b 预期变化不大Red team RT-01 triaged (2026-10-15, Claude reproduced all 6 checks): E020's claim that "the NW excess is mostly a fixed-SP-shape artefact" does not hold — of the −15% IVW shift, the v19 re-convergence (step A) gives −7.65%, the SP shape (A→B) −5.29%, the line energies (B→C) −2.87%; with common Model-C errors the NW/other ratio goes 1.345 (v19) → 1.133 (A) → 1.134 (C) — the drop happens at re-convergence, not at the SP shape; with equal weights 1.381 → 1.274 (A) → 1.341 (C), so the NW excess survives under Model C. I033 point 5 is back to Questioned; D49 stands as written (the 0.25 unexplained field-level systematic); the D49 update is withdrawn; Model C is a sensitivity variant only. E014 (D49): RASS ratio 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28 (no large-scale sky); no OMNI window above 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹ (not SWCX); I034 (the ParetoGTICal cross-check): v19 uses the 2.1.filter GTIs, stricter than 2.filter, and the NW four are not under-filtered — residual flare time is not the explanation; a steady SP floor is invisible to GTIs, so E018b is expected to change little ↗
O4 银河系前景模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验（300 kpc 图）MW foreground model + Local Hot Bridge test (300-kpc map) E021/E022/E023/E024/E025 完成；E026 运行中E021/E022/E023/E024/E025 done; E026 running E021 清点 + E022（8 个 class-A 外场拟合）之后，D50（PI，2026-10-15「同意第二个」）采纳 E024 建议：P1+P2 立即拟合（E025），6 个真正外围场上 Virgo 重提取，跳过 P4，弃 NGC 147（仅剩 22% 视场）。E025 结果：P1 12/12 未通过掩膜审计（现有 v19 谱的掩膜只盖住引文展源圆的 0–9%），全部转入重提取清单；P2 19 场拟了 18 个（1 个 dof=0 剔除），其中 3 个无有限通量误差。干净外样本（13 场，无未掩展源）IVW 0.846 ± 0.059（χ² 27.3/12）vs 内场 0.965 ± 0.044，外/内 = 0.877 ± 0.072；全部 23 场（含未掩展源）0.831 ± 0.045；与 b（ρ = 0.04/−0.10）、N_H（ρ = −0.13/−0.19）均无相关；未掩展源不抬高流量（b-only 0.865 ± 0.133 vs a+b 0.809 ± 0.069）。correction 1：10 个 P2 a+b 场也未通过掩膜审计（MOS 最低 0–0.066）→ 重提取清单 = 6（D50）+ 12（P1）+ 10（a+b）= 28 场（E026，运行中，待定）。全部新增方向仍在 b < 0（−33.2 … −9.6），无正纬度覆盖。Locatelli 模型在 M31 足迹投影 1.290 vs 测量 0.965（残差 −0.326，模型紧张）；Ueda 0.312、HaloSat 0.565After the E021 inventory and E022 (8 class-A outer fields fitted), D50 (the PI, 2026-10-15, "agree with the second") adopts E024's suggestion: fit P1+P2 now (E025), re-extract 6 genuinely-outer fields on Virgo, skip P4, drop NGC 147 (only 22% of the field of view left). E025 results: all 12 P1 fields fail the mask audit (the existing v19 spectra's mask covers only 0–9% of the cited extended-target circle), all moving to the re-extraction list; 18 of 19 attempted P2 fits are accepted (1 rejected, dof = 0), 3 of them without a finite flux error. The clean outer sample (13 fields without an unmasked extended target) has IVW 0.846 ± 0.059 (χ² 27.3/12) vs the inner 0.965 ± 0.044, outer/inner = 0.877 ± 0.072; all 23 fields (including unmasked targets) give 0.831 ± 0.045; no trend with b (ρ = 0.04/−0.10) or N_H (ρ = −0.13/−0.19); unmasked extended targets do not raise the flux (b-only 0.865 ± 0.133 vs a+b 0.809 ± 0.069). Correction 1: the 10 P2 a+b fields also fail the mask audit (MOS minimum 0–0.066) → the re-extraction list = 6 (D50) + 12 (P1) + 10 (a+b) = 28 fields (E026, running, Pending). All added directions remain at b < 0 (−33.2 … −9.6); no positive-latitude coverage. The Locatelli model projected at the M31 footprint is 1.290 vs the measured 0.965 (residual −0.326, a model tension); Ueda 0.312, HaloSat 0.565 ↗
O5 New-ANGELS III 论文The New-ANGELS III manuscript draft 16 页内部稿完成（AASTeX，5 表 3 图）；提交门槛见 I013（径向+侧向联合似然、边界感知区间、系统误差网格等）A 16-page internal draft exists (AASTeX, 5 tables, 3 figures); submission gates in I013 (shared radial-plus-side likelihood, boundary-aware intervals, the systematic grid, ...) ↗

来源：O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 与 I033；O2a cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1、toy-MC 与「A2 v2 final」节；插值表 a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv 与 a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv、覆盖率 a2_toymc_threshold.csv 与 a2_toymc_threshold_v2C.csv）、cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md（RT-02 的 F3 发现）、.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1d 行）；O2b cognition-os/experiments/E022（correction 1 节）、E023（limits.csv）与 E025（correction 1 节；correction1_ivw_table.csv）；O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020（「Red-team RT-01 triage」节）、E014、cognition-os/insights/I034、cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节（撤回）、cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md；O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021（inventory.csv）、E024（policy_table.csv）、E025、cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50、newangels3_discussion/E024_hermes/latitude_reach.csv、00_AI_BRIEFING.md（D42–D46 数值）与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md；O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 与 paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md。

Source: O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 and I033; O2a cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1, toy-MC and "A2 v2 final" sections; the interpolated tables a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv and a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv, the coverage a2_toymc_threshold.csv and a2_toymc_threshold_v2C.csv), cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md (RT-02's F3 finding), .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1d row); O2b cognition-os/experiments/E022 (the correction-1 section), E023 (limits.csv) and E025 (the correction-1 section; correction1_ivw_table.csv); O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020 (the "Red-team RT-01 triage" section), E014, cognition-os/insights/I034, cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section (withdrawn), cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md; O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021 (inventory.csv), E024 (policy_table.csv), E025, cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D50, newangels3_discussion/E024_hermes/latitude_reach.csv, 00_AI_BRIEFING.md (D42–D46 numbers) and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md; O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 and paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md.

未解问题表Open problems

问题Problem 为什么重要Why it matters 当前最佳假设Best current hypothesis 下一个检验Next test 负责Owner 状态Status
MW 与 M31 气体同温同形，EPIC 谱无法按距离分解（I006）MW and M31 gas share temperature and spectral shape; EPIC spectra cannot separate them by distance (I006) 决定论文能声明什么：只能测总和 CGMsum，任何分量归属都需要外部假设Determines what the paper can claim: only the sum CGMsum is measured; any component split needs external assumptions 分离只能来自空间形状（半径衰减、南北对称）与外部前景约束Separation can only come from spatial shape (radial decline, N/S symmetry) and external foreground constraints E013 A2 v1 已给出谱级上限（见状态页插值表；红队 RT-02 审查中——已发现 A1 曲面有优化卡住的点）；A2 基线版将在 A1d（v19 模型多元起始曲面，运行中）上重跑E013 A2 v1 has delivered the spectral-level limit (see the interpolated table on the state page; under red-team review RT-02 — stuck optimisation points already found in the A1 surfaces); the A2 baseline will rerun on A1d (v19-model multi-start surfaces, running) E013 A1d/A2 基线运行中；RT-02 审查中A1d/A2 baseline running; RT-02 reviewing
轮廓平（χ²=11.99/13；E020 模型 C 下同样平，斜率 −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc）：M31 集中晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc）在 20 kpc ≤0.047–0.164（A2 v1 插值版），远低于 Zhang 叠加 0.83The profile is flat (χ²=11.99/13; still flat under E020's Model C, slope −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc): a concentrated M31 halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc) is ≤0.047–0.164 at 20 kpc (A2 v1, interpolated), far below the Zhang stack 0.83 M31 内晕热气要么比叠加预期暗几倍，要么在 10–30 kpc 内分布很平（核 ≳30 kpc）M31's inner-halo hot gas is either several times fainter than the stacked expectation, or flat over 10–30 kpc (core ≳30 kpc) 「平/大核」这条退路现在也被限制：E023 用 8 个 82–253 kpc 外场把大核晕压到 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）@20 kpc（β=0.5），Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5），β = 0.6 时 r_c ≤ 200 全部排除；E025 再把外样本扩到 26 个已拟合方向（23 个有双侧误差）（干净外/内 0.877 ± 0.072）；r_c = 50 时上限 0.318–0.601（A2 v1，内场单独）已被联合拟合取代the "flat/large-core" escape route is now limited too: using the 8 outer fields at 82–253 kpc, E023 pushes the large-core halo to 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) at 20 kpc (β=0.5), excluding Zhang 0.83 up to r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5) and for all r_c ≤ 200 at β = 0.6; E025 has since grown the outer sample to 26 fitted directions (23 with two-sided errors) (clean outer/inner 0.877 ± 0.072); the A2 v1 inner-only limit at r_c = 50 (0.318–0.601) is superseded by the joint fit A2 基线版（A1d 曲面）复核集中核上限；E023 在谱曲面上重做大核上限（加 MW 纬度项）；E016 的未解源项空间上平，不削弱形状上限the A2 baseline (on the A1d surfaces) re-checks the compact-core limit; E023 is redone on spectral surfaces for the large-core limit (with an MW latitude term); E016's unresolved-source terms are spatially flat, so they do not weaken the shape limit E013 provisional
外 NW 四场偏亮（v19 外四/其余十 = 1.28）The four outer-NW fields are bright (v19 outer-four/other-ten = 1.28) 若为银河系纬度结构，会挤占 M31 的解释空间；若为 SWCX 则是时间效应；若为仪器/软质子则影响系统误差预算If it is Galactic-latitude structure it eats into the M31 budget; if SWCX it is a time effect; if instrumental/soft-proton it changes the systematic budget 红队 RT-01 分诊后回到「未解释」：−15% 的 IVW 移动一半来自 v19 重收敛（0800730301 通量 0.975 → 0.559，Δstat 仅 −0.04），固定 SP 谱形只贡献 −5.29%；用共同模型 C 误差时 NW/其余 1.345 → 1.133（A）→ 1.134（C）——下降在重收敛，不在 SP 谱形；等权重下模型 C 内仍 1.34。E014 已排除大尺度天空（RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28）与 OMNI 太阳风；I034：NW 四场没有被 GTI 欠过滤（2.1.filter 比 2.filter 严，NW 四场仅损失 0–28% 时间），稳态 SP 对时间筛选不可见。D49 原文生效（0.25 未解释场级系统误差）；D49 更新（−15% SP 谱形系统误差）已撤回；模型 C 只是敏感性变体back to "unexplained" after red team RT-01's triage: half of the −15% IVW shift comes from re-converging the v19 fits (0800730301's flux 0.975 → 0.559 at Δstat only −0.04), the fixed SP shape contributes just −5.29%; with common Model-C errors NW/other goes 1.345 → 1.133 (A) → 1.134 (C) — the drop is at re-convergence, not the SP shape; with equal weights it stays 1.34 under Model C. E014 excluded large-scale sky (RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28) and OMNI solar wind; I034: the NW four are not under-filtered by the GTIs (2.1.filter is stricter than 2.filter; the NW four lose only 0–28% of live time), and a steady SP floor is invisible to time filtering. D49 stands as written (the 0.25 unexplained field-level systematic); the D49 update (a −15% SP-shape systematic) is withdrawn; Model C is a sensitivity variant only A1d 曲面重跑 A2 基线；红队 RT-02/RT-03 分诊；E018b（Virgo 更严耀斑过滤）预期变化不大（I034），保持可选rerun the A2 baseline on the A1d surfaces; triage red teams RT-02/RT-03; E018b (a stricter Virgo flare filter) is expected to change little (I034) and stays optional E020/RT-01/PI 回到未解释；红队进行中back to unexplained; red team running
v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形过刚、仪器线能量钉边（E018a/E013）——E020 已量化v19 fit QA: the SP shape was too rigid and line energies pinned (E018a/E013) — now quantified by E020 决定系统误差网格里必须有哪一行（I013 提交门槛 3）；不修会以场级伪迹污染科学结论Decides which row the systematic grid must contain (I013 submission gate 3); unfixed, it contaminates science with field-level artefacts E020（20 场，多元起始）：SP 谱形自由在 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 改善 8–16；线能量自由在 0401 改善 8.5、1001 改善 15。模型 C 下 14 场逆方差均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041。红队 RT-01 分解：−15.04% 中重收敛（A）−7.65%、SP 谱形（A→B）−5.29%、线能量（B→C）−2.87%——不是一个 SP 谱形系统误差；模型 C 的 SP 谱形未经物理验证（13/14 场 SP 升、MWhalo 降，log-ratio 相关 −0.49；0800730901 的 SP ×1150 且 PhoIndx2 钉在极限）。模型 C 的剖面误差在固定 kT 下算得（低估），4 场半宽仅 0.15–0.27 σ_v19；残差散布 χ² 24.5/13（p = 0.026），单个 −15% 标量不能替代场级项E020 (20 fields, multi-start): freeing the SP shape improves 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 by 8–16; freeing line energies improves 0401 by 8.5 and 1001 by 15. Under Model C the 14-field inverse-variance mean is 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041. Red team RT-01's decomposition: of −15.04%, re-convergence (A) gives −7.65%, the SP shape (A→B) −5.29%, the line energies (B→C) −2.87% — not a single SP-shape systematic; Model C's SP shapes are not physically validated (SP up, MWhalo down in 13/14 fields, log-ratio correlation −0.49; 0800730901's SP ×1150 with PhoIndx2 at its limit). Model C's profile errors were computed at fixed kT (an underestimate); 4 fields have half-widths only 0.15–0.27 σ_v19; the residual scatter is χ² 24.5/13 (p = 0.026), so a single −15% scalar cannot replace the field-to-field term A1d（v19 模型、每点多元起始）曲面成为 A2 基线（运行中）；模型 C 曲面（A1c）降级为敏感性变体；D49 更新撤回——系统误差预算继续携带场级未解释项the A1d (v19-model, multi-start at every point) surfaces become the A2 baseline (running); the Model-C surfaces (A1c) are demoted to a sensitivity variant; the D49 update is withdrawn — the systematic budget keeps carrying the unexplained field-level term E020 E020 完成E020 done
PSF 翼泄漏：掩膜亮源的翼落在提取区里（E016）PSF-wing leak: the wings of masked bright sources fall inside the extraction region (E016) E016 里它是最大的单一未解源项（模型估计 ≈0.12 F [最大 0.32]，主要是幂律）；若实测偏大，会压低「仅气体」的总和并改变系统误差预算In E016 it is the single largest unresolved-source term (model estimate ≈0.12 F [max 0.32], mostly power law); if the empirical value is larger it lowers the gas-only total and changes the systematic budget E019（已完成）：123 个源相机测量里的 81 个孤立类点源叠加——只有最亮 bin（中位 1.2e-14 cgs）可用：f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；King 模型对同样椭圆给 14.3%。14 主场的逐场泄漏 SB：0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正） vs E016 模型 0.12（高括号 0.22）；共享标度误差 ≈ ±0.14。泄漏是幂律型、空间上平——不改变 M31 形状上限；对总量是又一个向下项（主要落在幂律/CXB 项，不在 APEC）E019 (done): a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources out of 123 source-camera measurements — only the brightest bin (median 1.2e-14 cgs) is usable: f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; the King model gives 14.3% for the same ellipses. Per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries: 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12 (high bracket 0.22); the shared-scale error is ≈ ±0.14. The leak is power-law-like and spatially flat — it does not change the M31 shape limit; for the total it is one more downward term (mostly in the power-law/CXB term, not the APEC) 暗 bin 低于零点底噪（椭圆外净计数为负），不可用；2801（E016 异常掩膜标记）在 1.06 > F，0101 在 0.50 ≈ Fthe faint bins sit below the background floor (net counts out of the ellipse are negative), unusable; 2801 (an anomalous mask, E016 flag) is at 1.06 > F and 0101 at 0.50 ≈ F E019 E019 完成E019 done
Locatelli MW 模型在 M31 方向预言 1.29 > 测量 0.965The Locatelli MW model predicts 1.29 > the measured 0.965 toward M31 若模型对，则无正的 M31 中心残差；紧张来自模型、转换或吸收之一If the model is right there is no non-negative central M31 residual; the tension lies in the model, the conversion, or absorption 模型高估、线-宽带转换失配、或 v19 总和偏低（三种解释并列）Model over-prediction, line-to-band conversion mismatch, or a low-biased v19 sum (three live explanations) 300 kpc RASS 图建立本地 MW 模型（O4）A 300-kpc RASS map to build a local MW model (O4) 计划planned 计划planned
300 kpc 图：30 kpc 以外的档案样本很薄（E021）The 300-kpc map: the archival sample beyond 30 kpc is thin (E021) O4（本地 MW 模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验）需要 30 kpc 以外的视线；样本太薄会限制图的能力O4 (a local MW model + the Local Hot Bridge test) needs sightlines beyond 30 kpc; a thin sample limits what the map can do 145 个 ObsID 里 class-A 只有 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个（30–60 kpc 为零）；全部在 b = −5° 到 −33°，无正纬度场。E022 已完成这 8 个场的拟合（外 IVW 0.842 ± 0.065；内禀 norm 外/内 0.80 ± 0.13）。D50 已定（2026-10-15）：P1+P2 立即拟合、6 场 Virgo 重提取、跳过 P4、弃 NGC 147。E025 已跑：P1 12/12 掩膜审计未过（掩膜仅盖展源圆 0–9%）→ 全部转重提取；P2 18/19 接受；干净外样本（13 场）0.846 ± 0.059，外/内 0.877 ± 0.072；与 b、N_H 无相关。correction 1 后重提取清单 = 6 + 12 + 10 = 28 场（E026 运行中，待定）；4 个引文半径是估值，任何提升结果前需从图像重推Of 145 ObsIDs only 22 are class A, and just 8 lie beyond 30 kpc (zero at 30–60 kpc); all at b = −5° to −33°, no positive-latitude field. E022 has fitted those 8 fields (outer IVW 0.842 ± 0.065; intrinsic norm outer/inner 0.80 ± 0.13). D50 is decided (2026-10-15): fit P1+P2 now, re-extract 6 fields on Virgo, skip P4, drop NGC 147. E025 has run: all 12 P1 fields fail the mask audit (the mask covers only 0–9% of the extended-target circle) → all move to re-extraction; 18/19 P2 fits accepted; the clean outer sample (13 fields) gives 0.846 ± 0.059, outer/inner 0.877 ± 0.072; no trend with b or N_H. After correction 1 the re-extraction list = 6 + 12 + 10 = 28 fields (E026 running, Pending); 4 cited radii are estimates, to be re-derived from images before any promoted result E026（28 场 Virgo 重提取，D50 条件：复现 v19 的 2.1.filter GTI 约定并逐相机报告相对 2.filter 的保留时间）→ 重提取场按 v19 规则拟合 → 在扩大样本上重做 E023 式联合拟合（加 MW 纬度项）；红队 RT-03 审查外/内比较E026 (28-field Virgo re-extraction, D50 conditions: reproduce the v19 2.1.filter GTI convention and report retained time vs 2.filter per camera) → the re-extracted fields are fitted under v19 rules → the E023-style joint fit is redone on the enlarged sample (with an MW latitude term); red team RT-03 reviews the outer/inner comparison E026/RT-03 E021/E022/E024/E025 完成；E026 运行中E021/E022/E024/E025 done; E026 running
源掩膜的出处缺口（I013 提交门槛 5）：v19 掩膜规则不可复原（经验上是 2–4.5 keV 硬带掩膜）The source-mask provenance gap (I013 submission gate 5): the v19 mask rule is unrecoverable (empirically a hard-band 2–4.5 keV mask) 审稿人会问「掩膜怎么来的、漏了多少」；E017a 现在给出实测答案a referee will ask "where did the mask come from and what does it miss"; E017a now answers it empirically E017a（已完成）：v19 掩膜按 0.5–2 keV 流量掩住 Paper I 亮源（>1e-14）的 95.5 %（233/244；11 个未掩，6 个主场亮源完备度低于 0.95）；未掩亮源量级 ≈ 11 × ~2e-14 摊在 ≈ 4200 arcmin² ≈ 0.05（1e-15 单位，多为幂律/CXB 型，小的向上偏置）。掩膜椭圆 8784 个里 87 % 没有 10″ 内的 Paper I 源——v19 掩膜来自更深的逐观测探测表（E016：有效 ML ≈ 0.55），切掉更多（多为暗源/伪源），花的是天空面积不是偏差E017a (done): by 0.5–2 keV flux the v19 mask covers 95.5 % of the bright Paper I sources (>1e-14; 233/244; 11 unmasked, 6 primary fields below 0.95 bright completeness); the unmasked-bright order of magnitude is ≈ 11 × ~2e-14 spread over ≈ 4200 arcmin² ≈ 0.05 (1e-15 units, mostly power-law/CXB-like, a small upward bias). Of the 8784 mask ellipses, 87 % have no Paper I source within 10″ — the v19 mask comes from a much deeper per-observation detection list (E016: effective ML ≈ 0.55), so it cuts many more (mostly faint or spurious) regions; it costs sky area, not bias E017b（低优先，除非审稿人要）：只用 Paper I 星表重建掩膜（需 Virgo 重提取），对比 v19 的 skyarea 与通量E017b (low priority unless a referee asks): rebuild the mask from the Paper I catalogue only (needs re-extraction on Virgo), compare skyarea and flux with v19 E017a E017a 完成E017a done
时间过滤（GTI）与场间底噪：v19 的 GTI 是历史 2.1.filter，场间散布的来源是什么？（I034）Time filtering (GTIs) and the between-field floor: v19's GTIs are the historical 2.1.filter — what causes the field-to-field scatter? (I034) 若散布是残余耀斑，更严的 GTI 能压低它（E018b）；若是稳态 SP/未遮光的 QPB，GTI 无效，系统误差要靠场级模型项携带if the scatter were residual flares, a stricter GTI would suppress it (E018b); if it is a steady SP or unvignetted QPB, GTIs are powerless and the systematic must ride as a field-level model term I034（ParetoGTICal 交叉核对）：v19 的诊断产品与 2.1.filter 逐字节一致（sha256 核对三个场）；对全部 14 主场 2.1.filter 保留的时间少于 2.filter（更严）；NW 四场损失 0–28%，而 1101/2301/2801 损失 17–25% 却不亮——残余耀斑不是 NW 超出的解释；稳态 SP 对 GTI 不可见；ParetoGTICal E020 给出同 z 处 9–12% 的场间 rms 底噪（未遮光 QPB/SP 之差），与谱拟合的场间散布同量级I034 (the ParetoGTICal cross-check): v19's diagnostic products are byte-identical to 2.1.filter (sha256-checked on three fields); on all 14 primaries 2.1.filter keeps less time than 2.filter (stricter); the NW four lose 0–28% while 1101/2301/2801 lose 17–25% without being bright — residual flares do not explain the NW excess; a steady SP floor is invisible to GTIs; ParetoGTICal E020 gives a 9–12% rms between-field floor at the same z (unvignetted QPB/SP differences), the same scale as the spectral fits' field-to-field scatter E018b 预期变化不大（保持可选）；D50 的 Virgo 重提取必须复现 2.1.filter 约定并报告相对 2.filter 的保留时间；系统误差预算继续携带场级项E018b is expected to change little (stays optional); D50's Virgo re-extractions must reproduce the 2.1.filter convention and report retained time vs 2.filter; the systematic budget keeps the field-level term I034 I034 完成I034 done
南北差异 0.212 ± 0.210（1.01σ）——一致性，不是非对称探测North-minus-South 0.212 ± 0.210 (1.01σ) — consistency, not an asymmetry detection 非对称上限是论文的直接结果之一；两侧半径分布不匹配（中位 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc）The asymmetry limit is one of the paper's direct results; the two sides have unmatched radius distributions (medians 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc) 总和在两侧一致；任何分量级非对称结论都需要 MW 均匀或 M31 对称假设The sum is consistent between sides; any component-level asymmetry claim needs MW-uniformity or M31-symmetry assumptions 共享径向项 + 侧向偏移的联合拟合（I013 提交门槛 1）A joint fit with a shared radial term plus a side offset (I013 submission gate 1) 计划planned 计划planned

来源：cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/insights/I033（E022 + E023 段；第 5 条经 RT-01 回到 Questioned）、I006、I012、I017、I034；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1、toy-MC 与「A2 v2 final」节）、E014、E016、E018a、E019、E020（「Red-team RT-01 triage」节）、E021、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E024、E025（correction 1 节）、E017a；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节（撤回）与 D50；cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md（RT-02 的 F3 发现）；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 运行与队列）；03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行。

Source: cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/insights/I033 (the E022 + E023 paragraph; point 5 back to Questioned after RT-01), I006, I012, I017, I034; cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1, toy-MC and "A2 v2 final" sections), E014, E016, E018a, E019, E020 (the "Red-team RT-01 triage" section), E021, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E024, E025 (the correction-1 section), E017a; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section (withdrawn) and D50; cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md (RT-02's F3 finding); .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 runs and the queue); the last rows of 03_TRUST_TABLE.md.

未来 1–4 周计划（依据 D48 与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (from D48 and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION)

E018a fluxes
图：E018a 的八个场（左：外 NW 四场；右：同期对照四场）的吸收 0.5–2 keV CGMsum 通量。黑点 = 冻结的 v19；蓝方 = 模型 A（v19 重收敛，6 个起始）；红菱 = 模型 B（A + SP 谱形自由）。0301 的流量在近简并处移动（0.975→0.56，Δstat −0.04），0601 在线能量解钉后统计量降 14.7；外四/对照四的逆方差比值从 1.295 降到 1.130（≈1σ）。 Figure: E018a's absorbed 0.5–2 keV CGMsum fluxes for the eight fields (left: the outer-NW four; right: the same-epoch control four). Black = frozen v19; blue squares = Model A (v19 re-converged, 6 starts); red diamonds = Model B (A + free SP shape). 0301's flux moves at a near-degeneracy (0.975→0.56 at Δstat −0.04), and 0601's statistic drops by 14.7 once the line energy unpins; the outer-four/control-four inverse-variance ratio falls from 1.295 to 1.130 (≈1σ).

数据：newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv（E018a，luna，Claude 已核）；比值 1.295/1.168/1.130 由本站用 v19 权重从该 CSV 复算。图由 handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py 生成。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv (E018a, luna, Claude-checked); the 1.295/1.168/1.130 ratios recomputed by this site from that CSV with v19 weights. Figure made by handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py.

E021 sky coverage
图：E021 档案清点的天区覆盖（Claude 评审时已查看）。lang 的 data/ 有 145 个 ObsID：class-A（v19 可用）22 个、class-B 114 个、class-C 9 个。class-A 按到 M31 的距离：0–30 kpc 14 个（New-ANGELS 核心样本）、30–60 kpc 0 个、60–100 kpc 3 个、100–150 kpc 1 个、150–200 kpc 3 个、200–300 kpc 1 个——30 kpc 以外只有 8 个，且全部在负银纬。 Figure: the sky coverage of E021's archival inventory (viewed by the reviewer). lang's data/ holds 145 ObsIDs: 22 class A (v19-ready), 114 class B, 9 class C. Class A by distance from M31: 14 at 0–30 kpc (the New-ANGELS core), 0 at 30–60 kpc, 3 at 60–100, 1 at 100–150, 3 at 150–200, 1 at 200–300 — only 8 beyond 30 kpc, all at negative Galactic latitude.

数据：newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv 与 class_counts.csv（E021，Hermes，已接受）。图来自 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png（评审已查看），复制入 assets/。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv and class_counts.csv (E021, Hermes, accepted). Figure from newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png (viewed by the reviewer), copied into assets/.

  1. E013 A2 v1 + toy MC（已完成）：谱联合似然在 14 主场的 v19 曲面上插值，对 N_MW、梯度、kT（0.185 keV）做 profile；无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07）。单侧 95% 上限（Δstat = 2.71，插值版）见状态页表；toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），误报率 0.069–0.086，观测上限 = toy 中位数。产出 newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/（a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv、a2_toymc_threshold.csv、a2_ul_vs_rc.png）。 E013 A2 v1 + toy MC (done): the spectral joint likelihood interpolated on the 14 primary fields' v19 surfaces, profiling over N_MW, the gradient and kT (0.185 keV); no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07). One-sided 95% UL (Δstat = 2.71, interpolated) in the state-page table; toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), false-detection rate 0.069–0.086, observed limits = the toy median. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/ (a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv, a2_toymc_threshold.csv, a2_ul_vs_rc.png).
  2. E020（已完成；RT-01 已分诊）：样本级重收敛（20 场，模型 A/B/C，多元起始）。模型 C 下 14 场均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041。红队 RT-01 分解（Claude 复核）：−15.04% 中 v19 重收敛（A）−7.65%、SP 谱形（A→B）−5.29%、线能量（B→C）−2.87%——「SP 谱形单侧 −15% 系统误差」不成立；模型 C 的 SP 谱形未经物理验证；D49 更新撤回。模型 C 曲面（A1c）降级为敏感性变体；A1d（v19 模型多元起始）成为 A2 基线。产出 newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/。 E020 (done; RT-01 triaged): the sample-wide re-convergence (20 fields, Models A/B/C, multi-start). Under Model C the 14-field mean moves 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041. Red team RT-01's decomposition (Claude-reproduced): of −15.04%, the v19 re-convergence (A) gives −7.65%, the SP shape (A→B) −5.29%, the line energies (B→C) −2.87% — the "one-sided −15% SP-shape systematic" does not hold; Model C's SP shapes are not physically validated; the D49 update is withdrawn. The Model-C surfaces (A1c) are demoted to a sensitivity variant; A1d (v19-model multi-start) becomes the A2 baseline. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/.
  3. E019（已完成）：PSF 翼泄漏的实测——81 个孤立类点源叠加，最亮 bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；14 主场泄漏 SB 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12。产出 newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/。 E019 (done): the empirical PSF-wing leak — a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources, brightest-bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/.
  4. E021（已完成）：档案清点与 300 kpc 图设计（无拟合）——145 ObsID，class-A 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个；产出 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/（inventory.csv、DESIGN.md、天区覆盖图）。 E021 (done): the archival inventory and the 300-kpc map design (no fitting) — 145 ObsIDs, 22 class A, only 8 beyond 30 kpc; outputs newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/ (inventory.csv, DESIGN.md, the sky-coverage figure).
  5. E022（已完成）：8 个外 class-A 档案场（82–253 kpc）的 v19 + 模型 C 拟合（N_H 从 HI4PI 重建，与 v19 差 0.05–0.31 %）。v19 结果被接受为外场参考：外 IVW 0.842 ± 0.065；内禀 norm 外/内 0.80 ± 0.13；模型 C 仅作系统变体（其外场剖面误差 χ² 168/7，不能用于加权平均）。产出 newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/。 E022 (done): v19 + Model-C fits of the 8 outer class-A archival fields (82–253 kpc; N_H rebuilt from HI4PI, agreeing with v19 to 0.05–0.31 %). The v19 results are accepted as the outer reference: outer IVW 0.842 ± 0.065; intrinsic norm outer/inner 0.80 ± 0.13; Model C is a systematic variant only (its outer profile errors give χ² 168/7, unusable for a weighted mean). Outputs newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/.
  6. E023（已完成）：22 个 v19 norm（14 内 + 8 外）的联合 MW 常数 + M31 β 拟合（高斯似然，局部协方差误差）——大核晕在 20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）（β = 0.5）；Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5)；无 M31 分量被偏好（Δχ²(A=0) ≤ 1.3）。Claude 已独立复算 r_c = 50/100 的上限，数值一致。产出 newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv。下一步：在谱曲面上重做。 E023 (done): a joint MW-constant + M31-beta fit of the 22 v19 norms (14 inner + 8 outer; Gaussian likelihood on local-covariance errors) — the large-core halo's one-sided 95% UL at 20 kpc is 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) for β = 0.5; Zhang 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5); no M31 term is preferred (Δχ²(A=0) ≤ 1.3). Claude independently recomputed the r_c = 50/100 limits and got the same values. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv. Next: redo it on spectral surfaces.
  7. E017a（已完成）：Paper I 星表与 v19 掩膜的交叉匹配（14 主场，MOS1）——亮源（>1e-14）掩住 95.5 %（233/244，11 个未掩）；8784 个掩膜椭圆里 87 % 无 10″ 内的 Paper I 源（掩膜来自更深的逐观测探测表）。掩膜出处缺口就此闭合。产出 newangels3_discussion/E017a_luna/。 E017a (done): the Paper I catalogue cross-matched against the v19 masks (14 primary fields, MOS1) — 95.5 % of bright sources (>1e-14) masked (233/244, 11 unmasked); of the 8784 mask ellipses 87 % have no Paper I source within 10″ (the masks come from a deeper per-observation detection list). The mask-provenance gap is thereby closed. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E017a_luna/.
  8. V01（已完成）：E020/E022 数值的独立复核（luna，直接从四个 CSV 复算，不用任何先前报告）——20 个标量比较 18 个 PASS；2 个「FAIL」只是 E020 加权径向斜率的舍入差（复算 −0.0005348 vs 声称 −0.0005；0.006051 vs 0.0061；四位小数下一致，超出 0.5 % 严格容差）。产出 newangels3_discussion/V01_luna/verify_table.csv。 V01 (done): an independent verification of the E020/E022 numbers (luna, recomputed directly from the four CSVs, no prior reports as inputs) — 18 of 20 scalar comparisons PASS; the 2 "FAILs" are rounding-only differences in E020's weighted radial slope (recomputed −0.0005348 vs claimed −0.0005; 0.006051 vs 0.0061; identical at four decimals, outside the strict 0.5 % tolerance). Outputs newangels3_discussion/V01_luna/verify_table.csv.
  9. A1c 完成 + A2 v2 final（模型 C 曲面，敏感性变体，2026-10-15 18:26Z）：A1c（codexnim）14/14 场、加密后 117 点/场，门检全过；A2 v2 final 给出插值上限（β = 0.5，r_c = 4/8/15/30 = 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484；β = 0.4/0.6 在 r_c = 4 为 0.176/0.075），toy MC 1000 次覆盖率 0.918–0.933（低于 0.95）——Δstat = 2.71 在模型 C 曲面上略不保守，校准阈值待做（Claude TODO）；Zhang/上限（r_c ≤ 8）= 3.9–12 倍。产出 newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/（a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv、a2_ul_vs_rc_v2C.png）。RT-01 后定位：敏感性变体，不是基线。 A1c done + A2 v2 final (Model-C surfaces, a sensitivity variant, 2026-10-15 18:26Z): A1c (codexnim) 14/14 fields, 117 points per field after densification, all gates exact; A2 v2 final gives interpolated ULs (β = 0.5, r_c = 4/8/15/30 = 0.111/0.138/0.215/0.484; β = 0.4/0.6 at r_c = 4: 0.176/0.075), with a 1000-toy MC coverage of 0.918–0.933 (below 0.95) — the Δstat = 2.71 rule is slightly anti-conservative on the Model-C surfaces, a calibrated threshold is TODO (Claude); Zhang/UL for r_c ≤ 8 = 3.9–12x. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/ (a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv, a2_ul_vs_rc_v2C.png). After RT-01 its status is: a sensitivity variant, not the baseline.
  10. E024 完成（2026-10-15 ~13:2xZ）+ D50 决定 + E025 完成：E024（Hermes）给出 47 个外 B 场的四种政策：P1（遮展源）+12 个方向、P2（放宽到 8–10 ks）累计 +31、P3（加 9 个 Virgo 重提取）+40、P4（加单相机）+43；全部在 b < 0；NGC 147 不可用（仅剩 22% 视场）。PI 决定 D50（2026-10-15）：P1+P2 立即拟合、6 个真正外围场 Virgo 重提取、跳过 P4、弃 NGC 147。E025（luna）照此执行：P1 12/12 掩膜审计未过 → 全部转重提取；P2 18/19 接受；干净外样本（13 场）0.846 ± 0.059，外/内 = 0.877 ± 0.072；correction 1 把 10 个 P2 a+b 场也判为掩膜不足 → 重提取清单 6 + 12 + 10 = 28 场。产出 newangels3_discussion/E024_hermes/、newangels3_discussion/E025_luna/。 E024 done (2026-10-15 ~13:2xZ) + the D50 decision + E025 done: E024 (Hermes) laid out four policies for the 47 outer class-B fields: P1 (mask extended targets) +12 directions, P2 (relax to 8–10 ks) +31 cumulative, P3 (add 9 Virgo re-extractions) +40, P4 (add one-camera fields) +43; all at b < 0; NGC 147 unusable (22% of the field of view left). The PI decided (D50, 2026-10-15): fit P1+P2 now, re-extract 6 genuinely-outer fields on Virgo, skip P4, drop NGC 147. E025 (luna) executed it: all 12 P1 fields fail the mask audit → all to re-extraction; 18/19 P2 fits accepted; the clean outer sample (13 fields) 0.846 ± 0.059, outer/inner = 0.877 ± 0.072; correction 1 found the 10 P2 a+b fields also under-masked → the re-extraction list is 6 + 12 + 10 = 28 fields. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E024_hermes/, newangels3_discussion/E025_luna/.
  11. 运行中，待定：A1d（v19 模型多元起始曲面，A2 的新基线，18:50Z 启动）；红队 RT-02（M31 上限——已发现 A1 曲面优化卡住的点，对 A2 v1 有影响）；红队 RT-03（外/内比较）；E026（28 场 Virgo 重提取；stage 0 已完成——Virgo 无 ODF 需 NXSA，Virgo 负载 77%；stage 1 已派发）。结果出来前不引用任何数字。 Running, Pending: A1d (v19-model multi-start surfaces, the new A2 baseline, launched 18:50Z); red team RT-02 (the M31 limits — stuck optimisation points already found in the A1 surfaces, material for A2 v1); red team RT-03 (the outer/inner comparison); E026 (28-field Virgo re-extraction; stage 0 done — no ODFs on Virgo, NXSA needed, Virgo load 77%; stage 1 dispatched). No numbers quoted until results land.
  12. 其后：在 A1d 曲面上跑 A2 基线版（用 toy-MC 校准阈值，修复 RT-02 的卡点影响）；在谱曲面上重做 E023（加 MW 纬度项）；E026 完成后把 28 个重提取场按 v19 规则拟合，在扩大的内外样本上做联合拟合；E015（RASS 25° 原生计数图）；E018b 保持可选（I034：预期变化不大）。 After that: run the A2 baseline on the A1d surfaces (with a toy-MC-calibrated threshold, fixing the stuck-point impact RT-02 found); redo E023 on spectral surfaces (with an MW latitude term); once E026 finishes, fit the 28 re-extracted fields under v19 rules and run the joint fit on the enlarged inner+outer sample; E015 (the 25° native-count RASS map); E018b stays optional (I034: expected to change little).
  13. E015（排队）：M31 周围 25° 的 RASS 原生计数图（MW 纬度模型 + M31 中心项 + LHB 模板），为本地 MW 模型与 Local Hot Bridge 检验（O4）铺路。 E015 (queued): a 25° native-count RASS map around M31 (MW latitude model + an M31-centred term + an LHB template), paving the way for the local MW model and the Local Hot Bridge test (O4).
  14. E017b（低优先，排队）：只用 Paper I 星表重建源掩膜（需 Virgo 重提取），对比 v19 的 skyarea 与通量——E017a 的交叉匹配已把掩膜出处缺口闭合，此项仅在审稿人要求时做。 E017b (low priority, queued): rebuild the source mask from the Paper I catalogue only (needs re-extraction on Virgo) and compare skyarea and flux with v19 — E017a's cross-match has closed the mask-provenance gap, so this runs only if a referee asks.
  15. 论文讨论：把 I033 的科学线（总和、轮廓形状——含大核限制、NW 起源）与 E016/E019/E020（RT-01 后作敏感性变体）/E022/E023/E025/E017a 的新结果写进 New-ANGELS III 草稿的讨论部分；提交门槛仍按 I013。 Paper discussion: write the I033 science lines (total; profile shape — now including the large-core limit; NW origin) plus the new E016/E019/E020 (a sensitivity variant after RT-01)/E022/E023/E025/E017a results into the New-ANGELS III draft discussion; submission gates remain those of I013.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 与 2026-10-15 13Z update）；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1、toy-MC 与「A2 v2 final」节）、E019、E020（「Red-team RT-01 triage」节）、E021、E014、E016、E018a、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E024、E025（correction 1 节）、E017a；cognition-os/insights/I013、I034；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49（update 节已撤回）与 D50；cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 运行与队列）。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 and the 2026-10-15 13Z update); cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1, toy-MC and "A2 v2 final" sections), E019, E020 (the "Red-team RT-01 triage" section), E021, E014, E016, E018a, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E024, E025 (the correction-1 section), E017a; cognition-os/insights/I013, I034; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 (its update section withdrawn) and D50; cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 runs and the queue).

本次更新What's new

来源：cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1、toy-MC 与「A2 v2 final」节）、E019、E020（「Red-team RT-01 triage」节）、E021、E018a、E016、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E024、E025（correction 1 节）、E017a；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48、D49（update 节已撤回）与 D50；cognition-os/insights/I033、I034；cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md。

Source: cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1, toy-MC and "A2 v2 final" sections), E019, E020 (the "Red-team RT-01 triage" section), E021, E018a, E016, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E024, E025 (the correction-1 section), E017a; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48, D49 (its update section withdrawn) and D50; cognition-os/insights/I033, I034; cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md.

数据截至Data as of

2026-10-15T19:45Z（最新读到的来源：cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md（D50 与 D49 update 节，撤回记录）；cognition-os/experiments/E024_outer_classB_policy_options.md、E025_outer_classB_fits.md（result 与 correction 1 节）、E020_sample_reconverge_sp_shape_line_energy.md（「Red-team RT-01 triage」节）、E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md（「A2 v2 final」节）；cognition-os/insights/I034_paretogtical_crosscheck_gti_and_between_field_floor.md、I033（E020 段的撤回标记）；cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md；cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行；newangels3_discussion/E025_luna/（correction1_ivw_table.csv、outer_classB_summary.json、mask_audit.csv）、E024_hermes/（policy_table.csv、latitude_reach.csv）、E013_A2_claude/（a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv、a2_toymc_run_v2C.log）；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 运行行）；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e026-virgo-reextract-stage0/BRIEF.md、2026-10-15-a1d-v19shape-multistart-surfaces/BRIEF.md、2026-10-15-redteam-rt02-m31-limits/BRIEF.md、2026-10-15-redteam-rt03-outer-inner/BRIEF.mdnewest source read: cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md (D50 and the D49-update section, the withdrawal record); cognition-os/experiments/E024_outer_classB_policy_options.md, E025_outer_classB_fits.md (the result and correction-1 sections), E020_sample_reconverge_sp_shape_line_energy.md (the "Red-team RT-01 triage" section), E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md (the "A2 v2 final" section); cognition-os/insights/I034_paretogtical_crosscheck_gti_and_between_field_floor.md, I033 (the withdrawal mark in the E020 paragraph); cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md; the last rows of cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md; newangels3_discussion/E025_luna/ (correction1_ivw_table.csv, outer_classB_summary.json, mask_audit.csv), E024_hermes/ (policy_table.csv, latitude_reach.csv), E013_A2_claude/ (a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C.csv, a2_toymc_run_v2C.log); .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1d/RT-02/RT-03/E026 running rows); the BRIEFs of .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e026-virgo-reextract-stage0, 2026-10-15-a1d-v19shape-multistart-surfaces, 2026-10-15-redteam-rt02-m31-limits and 2026-10-15-redteam-rt03-outer-inner）