M31 CGM 工作台M31 CGM / New-ANGELS III
目录Contents

工作台：M31 的星系周介质（New-ANGELS III）Workbench: the circumgalactic medium of M31 (New-ANGELS III)

评审更新（2026-10-15 03:30 UTC）：本页写成后，E022（8 个 82–253 kpc 档案外场的 v19 模型谱拟合）完成：外场吸收流量加权均值 0.842 ± 0.065，内场 14 主场 0.965 ± 0.044（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²，吸收 0.5–2 keV）；不受 N_H 影响的内禀发射量（MWhalo norm）外/内 = 0.80 ± 0.13，两组内部散布均与统计一致。即 10–30 kpc 相对 80–250 kpc 天空无可测 M31 超出；平坦（大核）M31 项 ≲ 0.4（约 2σ）。模型 C 的外场剖面误差不能用于加权平均（χ² 168/7），仅作系统变体。A1c 因预算规则去掉加密重跑，A2 v2 预计约 13Z。Provisional。来源：cognition-os/experiments/E022_outer_classA_spectral_fits.md；newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/outer_inner_weighted_means.json。

Review update (2026-10-15 03:30 UTC): after this page was written, E022 (v19-model spectral fits of the 8 archival outer fields at 82–253 kpc) finished. The outer absorbed-flux weighted mean is 0.842 ± 0.065, against 0.965 ± 0.044 for the 14 inner primaries (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻², absorbed 0.5–2 keV). The intrinsic emission measure (MWhalo norm, independent of N_H) gives outer/inner = 0.80 ± 0.13, and both samples scatter as expected from statistics alone. So there is no measurable M31 excess at 10–30 kpc over the 80–250 kpc sky; a flat (large-core) M31 term is ≲ 0.4 (about 2σ). The Model C outer profile errors cannot be used for a weighted mean (χ² 168/7); Model C is a systematic variant only. A1c was restarted without densification to meet its time budget; A2 v2 is expected around 13Z. Provisional. Source: cognition-os/experiments/E022_outer_classA_spectral_fits.md; newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/outer_inner_weighted_means.json.

这是什么项目？What is this project?

M31（仙女座星系）是离我们最近的大型旋涡星系。宇宙学认为星系的大部分普通物质（重子）不在星系内部，而在星系周围几十万光年的星系周介质（CGM）——百万度的稀薄气体。本项目用 XMM-Newton 的 22 个指向（proposal 080073，PI J. Li）在 M31 内晕（投影半径 10.5–30.8 kpc）逐视线测量弥漫软 X 射线发射，把「银河系前景 + M31 内晕」的总和（记号 CGMsum）测准，再用空间形状限制其中有多少属于 M31。测量已冻结（D48，2026-10-14）：14 个主样本场的 CGMsum 吸收流量为 0.965 ± 0.044（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²），共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV。

M31 (Andromeda) is the nearest large spiral galaxy. Cosmology says most of a galaxy's ordinary matter (baryons) is not inside the galaxy but in the circumgalactic medium (CGM), million-degree thin gas around it. Using 22 XMM-Newton pointings (proposal 080073, PI J. Li) toward the M31 inner halo (projected radii 10.5–30.8 kpc), this project measures the diffuse soft X-ray emission sightline by sightline, pins down the sum "Milky Way foreground + M31 inner halo" (notation CGMsum), and then limits how much belongs to M31 from its spatial shape. The measurement is frozen (D48, 2026-10-14): the 14 primary fields give CGMsum absorbed flux 0.965 ± 0.044 (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²), common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48；cognition-os/insights/I033（0.965 ± 0.044，χ²=11.99/13）。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48; cognition-os/insights/I033 (0.965 ± 0.044, χ²=11.99/13).

现在进展如何？Where does it stand?

测量冻结；v19 基线（14 场）可信；轮廓在 10.5–29 kpc 内平（χ²=11.99/13）。E013 A2 v1 完成：无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07），集中式 M31 β 晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc，MW 常数）在 R=20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限（插值版）为 0.047–0.164，toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守）。E020 完成：SP 谱形 + 线能量自由后 14 场均值 0.964 → 0.819（单侧 −15% 系统误差），径向斜率为 0。E019 完成：PSF 翼泄漏实测 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs 模型 0.12。E021 完成：30 kpc 以外只有 8 个 class-A 档案场。A2 v2（基于 E020 模型 C 曲面）与 E022（8 个外场拟合）在跑，结果待定。

The measurement is frozen; the v19 baseline (14 fields) is trusted; the profile is flat over 10.5–29 kpc (χ²=11.99/13). E013 A2 v1 is done: no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07), and the one-sided 95% upper limit (interpolated) on a concentrated M31 beta halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc, MW constant) at R = 20 kpc is 0.047–0.164, with toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative). E020 done: with the SP shape and line energies freed the 14-field mean moves 0.964 → 0.819 (a one-sided −15% systematic) and the radial slope is 0. E019 done: the PSF-wing leak is 0.16 (raw) / 0.33 (null-corrected) empirically, vs the model 0.12. E021 done: only 8 class-A archival fields lie beyond 30 kpc. A2 v2 (on the E020 Model-C surfaces) and E022 (fits of the 8 outer fields) are running, results Pending.

还有什么没解决？What is unsolved?

① 前景与 M31 谱形几乎相同，无法按距离分解——E013 A2 v1 用空间形状给出上限（见状态页），A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）在跑；② 外 NW 四场偏亮：E014 排除大尺度天空与 OMNI 太阳风；E020 进一步表明 b 梯度（Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6）与 NW 超出（比值 1.28 → 1.13）大半是固定 SP 谱形的伪迹——D49 的更新（改记为 −15% SP 谱形系统误差）建议（未经评审），待 PI 确认；③ v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形 + 线能量自由重收敛后 14 场均值 −15%（0.964 → 0.819，单侧）；④ PSF 翼泄漏实测 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12——落在 E016 的 0.12–0.32 括号内；⑤ Locatelli 预言 1.29 > 0.965（E020 后紧张更强）；⑥ 300 kpc 图：档案样本很薄——145 个 ObsID 里只有 8 个 class-A 场在 30 kpc 以外，且全部在负银纬。

(i) The foreground and M31 have nearly identical spectra, so distance separation fails — E013 A2 v1 gives the limit from spatial shape (see the state page), and A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces) is running; (ii) the bright outer-NW four: E014 excluded large-scale sky and OMNI solar wind; E020 further shows that the b gradient (Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6) and the NW excess (ratio 1.28 → 1.13) are mostly a fixed-SP-shape artefact — the D49 update (re-carrying it as the −15% SP-shape systematic) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI; (iii) v19 fit QA: after the re-convergence with free SP shape and line energies the 14-field mean is −15% (0.964 → 0.819, one-sided); (iv) the PSF-wing leak is 0.16 (raw) / 0.33 (null-corrected) empirically vs E016's model 0.12 — inside E016's 0.12–0.32 bracket; (v) Locatelli predicts 1.29 > 0.965 (the tension strengthens after E020); (vi) the 300-kpc map: the archival sample is thin — of 145 ObsIDs only 8 class-A fields lie beyond 30 kpc, all at negative Galactic latitude.

下一步做什么？What do I do next?

按 编号计划：等 A1c（模型 C 曲面，运行中）→ A2 v2；等 E022（8 个外档案场拟合，运行中）；PI 决定（D49 更新是否采纳；300 kpc 样本的扩展目标政策）；此后 E015 → E017，E018b 视需要（可选）。E013 A2 v1 + toy MC、E019、E020、E021 已完成。命令见 byhand。

Plan: wait for A1c (the Model-C surfaces; running) → A2 v2; wait for E022 (fits of the 8 outer archival fields; running); the PI decisions (whether to adopt the D49 update; the extended-target policy for the 300-kpc sample); then E015 → E017, E018b optional. E013 A2 v1 + toy MC, E019, E020 and E021 are done. Commands at byhand.

最新骨架：流水线与各部分如何衔接Latest skeleton: the pipeline and how the parts connect

pipeline diagram
图：从 XMM 数据到 New-ANGELS III 论文的流水线。左：数据与前景输入；中：v19 逐 ObsID Sherpa 拟合；右：冻结的 CGMsum 测量与四条解释线（联合似然、NW 交叉检验、未解源、SP 谱形重拟合）。 Figure: the pipeline from XMM data to the New-ANGELS III paper. Left: data and foreground inputs; middle: the per-ObsID v19 Sherpa fit; right: the frozen CGMsum measurement and the four interpretation lines (joint likelihood, NW cross-check, unresolved sources, SP-shape refit).

来源：流程依据 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md 与 background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py 的模型结构；数值见 cognition-os/insights/I033。

Source: the flow follows cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md and the model structure of background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py; numbers from cognition-os/insights/I033.

目标表（O1–O5）Objectives (O1–O5)

目标Objective 状态Status 当前最好数值（估计器已命名）Best current number (estimator named) 趋势Trend
O1 M31 内晕方向冷视线总和（CGMsum）的测量Total cool line-of-sight emission (CGMsum) toward the M31 inner halo done 14 场逆方差平均：吸收 0.5–2 keV 流量 0.965 ± 0.044；共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV（v19，局部协方差误差）14-field inverse-variance mean: absorbed 0.5–2 keV flux 0.965 ± 0.044; common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV (v19, local-covariance errors) →冻结frozen
O2 由轮廓形状约束集中式 M31 热晕的大小/幅度Constrain the size/amplitude of a concentrated M31 hot halo from the profile shape provisional 谱联合似然 E013 A2 v1（14 主场，插值版单侧 95% 上限，MW 常数，kT profile）：r_c = 4 kpc 时 β=0.4/0.5/0.6 给 0.132/0.080/0.052；r_c ≤ 8 kpc 整体 0.047–0.164；Zhang 叠加预期 0.83 被排除 ≳5 倍（各 β 为 5–18 倍）。toy-MC 校准：覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），观测上限落在 toy 中位数。注意：这是 v19 模型曲面上的版本；A2 v2（E020 模型 C 曲面）待定，将是下一个权威版本Spectral joint likelihood E013 A2 v1 (14 primary fields, interpolated one-sided 95% UL, MW constant, kT profiled): at r_c = 4 kpc, β=0.4/0.5/0.6 give 0.132/0.080/0.052; over r_c ≤ 8 kpc, 0.047–0.164; the Zhang stack prediction 0.83 is excluded by ≳5x (5–18x across β). Toy-MC calibration: coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), the observed limits sit at the toy median. Note: this is the version on the v19-model surfaces; A2 v2 (on the E020 Model-C surfaces) is Pending and will be the next authoritative version ↗
O3 外 NW 亮场的起源Origin of the bright outer-NW fields E014 + E018a + E020 done E020（20 场，模型 C = SP 谱形 + 线能量自由，Claude 已从 fits_per_field.csv 复核）：外 NW 四场/其余十场比值 v19 1.28 → 模型 C 1.13（≈1σ，与对照持平）；b 梯度 Δχ² 从 6.2 降到 1.3–2.6；模型 C 下径向斜率 −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc（0）。SP 谱形对 14 场均值是单侧 −15% 系统误差（0.964 → 0.819；逐场 C/v19 = 0.56–1.00，从不高于 1）。E014（D49）：RASS 比值 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28（无大尺度结构）；OMNI 无窗口超 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹（非 SWCX）。D49 更新（改记 SP 谱形系统误差、E018b 转可选）建议（未经评审），待 PIE020 (20 fields, Model C = free SP shape and line energies, Claude-verified from fits_per_field.csv): the outer-NW four / other-ten ratio falls from v19's 1.28 to Model C's 1.13 (≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls); the b gradient falls from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6; under Model C the radial slope is −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc (0). The SP shape is a one-sided −15% systematic on the 14-field mean (0.964 → 0.819; per-field C/v19 = 0.56–1.00, never above 1). E014 (D49): RASS ratio 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28 (no large-scale sky); no OMNI window above 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹ (not SWCX). The D49 update (re-carrying the SP-shape systematic, E018b optional) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI ↗
O4 银河系前景模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验（300 kpc 图）MW foreground model + Local Hot Bridge test (300-kpc map) E021 完成；E022 运行中E021 done; E022 running E021 档案清点完成：lang 的 data/ 有 145 个 ObsID，class-A（v19 可用：双 MOS、Thin/Medium、≥10 ks、无亮展源、D25 外）仅 22 个，其中 30 kpc 以外只有 8 个（30–60 kpc 为零；全部在 b = −5° 到 −33°，无正纬度覆盖）。掩掉亮展源后 132–244 kpc 处的 12 个 B 场可把外样本扩大约 4 倍——是否采纳是 PI 的方法学决定。E022（8 个外 class-A 场的 v19 + 模型 C 拟合）在跑，待定。Locatelli 模型在 M31 足迹投影 1.290 vs 测量 0.965（残差 −0.326，模型紧张）；E020 后 14 场均值 0.819，紧张更强；Ueda 0.312、HaloSat 0.565E021 archival inventory done: lang's data/ holds 145 ObsIDs, of which only 22 are class A (v19-ready: both MOS, Thin/Medium, ≥10 ks, no bright extended target, outside D25), and only 8 of those lie beyond 30 kpc (zero at 30–60 kpc; all at b = −5° to −33°, no positive-latitude coverage). Masking the bright extended targets would make the 12 class-B fields at 132–244 kpc usable, roughly ×4 the outer sample — adopting that is a methodology call for the PI. E022 (v19 + Model-C fits of the 8 outer class-A fields) is running, Pending. Locatelli model projected at the M31 footprint: 1.290 vs measured 0.965 (residual −0.326, a model tension); after E020 the 14-field mean is 0.819, strengthening the tension; Ueda 0.312, HaloSat 0.565 ↗
O5 New-ANGELS III 论文The New-ANGELS III manuscript draft 16 页内部稿完成（AASTeX，5 表 3 图）；提交门槛见 I013（径向+侧向联合似然、边界感知区间、系统误差网格等）A 16-page internal draft exists (AASTeX, 5 tables, 3 figures); submission gates in I013 (shared radial-plus-side likelihood, boundary-aware intervals, the systematic grid, ...) ↗

来源：O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 与 I033；O2 cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节；插值表 a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv、覆盖率 a2_toymc_threshold.csv）；O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020（比值、斜率与 −15% 由 fits_per_field.csv 复核）与 E014、cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节；O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021（inventory.csv、class_counts.csv）、00_AI_BRIEFING.md（D42–D46 数值）与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md；O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 与 paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md。

Source: O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 and I033; O2 cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections; the interpolated table a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv, the coverage a2_toymc_threshold.csv); O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020 (ratios, slope and the −15% verified from fits_per_field.csv) and E014, cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section; O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021 (inventory.csv, class_counts.csv), 00_AI_BRIEFING.md (D42–D46 numbers) and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md; O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 and paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md.

未解问题表Open problems

问题Problem 为什么重要Why it matters 当前最佳假设Best current hypothesis 下一个检验Next test 负责Owner 状态Status
MW 与 M31 气体同温同形，EPIC 谱无法按距离分解（I006）MW and M31 gas share temperature and spectral shape; EPIC spectra cannot separate them by distance (I006) 决定论文能声明什么：只能测总和 CGMsum，任何分量归属都需要外部假设Determines what the paper can claim: only the sum CGMsum is measured; any component split needs external assumptions 分离只能来自空间形状（半径衰减、南北对称）与外部前景约束Separation can only come from spatial shape (radial decline, N/S symmetry) and external foreground constraints E013 A2 v1 已给出谱级上限（见状态页插值表）；A2 v2（E020 模型 C 曲面上的重跑，A1c 生成中）待定E013 A2 v1 has delivered the spectral-level limit (see the interpolated table on the state page); A2 v2 (the rerun on the E020 Model-C surfaces, being generated by A1c) is Pending E013 A1c/A2 v2 运行中A1c/A2 v2 running
轮廓平（χ²=11.99/13；E020 模型 C 下同样平，斜率 −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc）：M31 集中晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc）在 20 kpc ≤0.047–0.164（A2 v1 插值版），远低于 Zhang 叠加 0.83The profile is flat (χ²=11.99/13; still flat under E020's Model C, slope −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc): a concentrated M31 halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc) is ≤0.047–0.164 at 20 kpc (A2 v1, interpolated), far below the Zhang stack 0.83 M31 内晕热气要么比叠加预期暗几倍，要么在 10–30 kpc 内分布很平（核 ≳30 kpc）M31's inner-halo hot gas is either several times fainter than the stacked expectation, or flat over 10–30 kpc (core ≳30 kpc) M31 内晕热气比叠加均值暗，或与 MW/LG 退化为平背景；r_c = 30 kpc 时上限 0.318–0.601（可藏总量的三分之一），r_c = 50 kpc 不受约束M31 inner-halo gas is fainter than the stack mean, or degenerate with a flat MW/LG background; at r_c = 30 kpc the limit is 0.318–0.601 (a third of the total can hide), and at r_c = 50 kpc the data are uninformative A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）复核上限；E016 的未解源项空间上平，不削弱形状上限A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces) re-checks the limit; E016's unresolved-source terms are spatially flat, so they do not weaken the shape limit E013 provisional
外 NW 四场偏亮（v19 外四/其余十 = 1.28）The four outer-NW fields are bright (v19 outer-four/other-ten = 1.28) 若为银河系纬度结构，会挤占 M31 的解释空间；若为 SWCX 则是时间效应；若为仪器/软质子则影响系统误差预算If it is Galactic-latitude structure it eats into the M31 budget; if SWCX it is a time effect; if instrumental/soft-proton it changes the systematic budget E020：大半是固定 SP 谱形的伪迹——模型 C 下比值降到 1.13（≈1σ，与对照持平），b 梯度 Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6。E014 已排除大尺度天空（RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28）与 OMNI 太阳风。D49 目前仍生效（0.25 未解释场级系统误差）；D49 更新提案（改记为 −15% SP 谱形系统误差，E018b 转可选）建议（未经评审），待 PI 确认E020: mostly an artefact of the frozen SP shape — under Model C the ratio falls to 1.13 (≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls) and the b gradient from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6. E014 excluded large-scale sky (RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28) and OMNI solar wind. D49 remains active (the 0.25 unexplained field-level systematic); the D49-update proposal (re-carrying the −15% SP-shape systematic, E018b optional) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI PI 决定是否采纳 D49 更新；若采纳，E018b（Virgo ODF 级更严耀斑过滤）转可选the PI decides whether to adopt the D49 update; if adopted, E018b (stricter ODF-level flare filter on Virgo) becomes optional E020/PI closing
v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形过刚、仪器线能量钉边（E018a/E013）——E020 已量化v19 fit QA: the SP shape was too rigid and line energies pinned (E018a/E013) — now quantified by E020 决定系统误差网格里必须有哪一行（I013 提交门槛 3）；不修会以场级伪迹污染科学结论Decides which row the systematic grid must contain (I013 submission gate 3); unfixed, it contaminates science with field-level artefacts E020（20 场，多元起始）：SP 谱形自由在 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 改善 8–16；线能量自由在 0401 改善 8.5、1001 改善 15。模型 C 下 14 场逆方差均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041（−15%，单侧：逐场 C/v19 = 0.56–1.00，从不高于 1；最大降幅 0301 0.975→0.57、0901 0.93→0.52、1101 0.89→0.59）。模型 C 的剖面误差在固定 kT 下算得（低估），4 场半宽仅 0.15–0.27 σ_v19E020 (20 fields, multi-start): freeing the SP shape improves 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 by 8–16; freeing line energies improves 0401 by 8.5 and 1001 by 15. Under Model C the 14-field inverse-variance mean is 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041 (−15%, one-sided: per-field C/v19 = 0.56–1.00, never above 1; largest drops 0301 0.975→0.57, 0901 0.93→0.52, 1101 0.89→0.59). Model C's profile errors were computed at fixed kT (an underestimate); 4 fields have half-widths only 0.15–0.27 σ_v19 A1c/A2 v2（模型 C 曲面上的上限重跑，运行中）承接该行；D49 更新提案把 −0.15 记为系统误差行（待 PI）A1c/A2 v2 (the limit rerun on the Model-C surfaces; running) carries this row; the D49-update proposal records −0.15 as the systematic row (awaiting the PI) E020 E020 完成E020 done
PSF 翼泄漏：掩膜亮源的翼落在提取区里（E016）PSF-wing leak: the wings of masked bright sources fall inside the extraction region (E016) E016 里它是最大的单一未解源项（模型估计 ≈0.12 F [最大 0.32]，主要是幂律）；若实测偏大，会压低「仅气体」的总和并改变系统误差预算In E016 it is the single largest unresolved-source term (model estimate ≈0.12 F [max 0.32], mostly power law); if the empirical value is larger it lowers the gas-only total and changes the systematic budget E019（已完成）：123 个源相机测量里的 81 个孤立类点源叠加——只有最亮 bin（中位 1.2e-14 cgs）可用：f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；King 模型对同样椭圆给 14.3%。14 主场的逐场泄漏 SB：0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正） vs E016 模型 0.12（高括号 0.22）；共享标度误差 ≈ ±0.14。泄漏是幂律型、空间上平——不改变 M31 形状上限；对总量是又一个向下项（主要落在幂律/CXB 项，不在 APEC）E019 (done): a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources out of 123 source-camera measurements — only the brightest bin (median 1.2e-14 cgs) is usable: f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; the King model gives 14.3% for the same ellipses. Per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries: 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12 (high bracket 0.22); the shared-scale error is ≈ ±0.14. The leak is power-law-like and spatially flat — it does not change the M31 shape limit; for the total it is one more downward term (mostly in the power-law/CXB term, not the APEC) 暗 bin 低于零点底噪（椭圆外净计数为负），不可用；2801（E016 异常掩膜标记）在 1.06 > F，0101 在 0.50 ≈ Fthe faint bins sit below the background floor (net counts out of the ellipse are negative), unusable; 2801 (an anomalous mask, E016 flag) is at 1.06 > F and 0101 at 0.50 ≈ F E019 E019 完成E019 done
Locatelli MW 模型在 M31 方向预言 1.29 > 测量 0.965The Locatelli MW model predicts 1.29 > the measured 0.965 toward M31 若模型对，则无正的 M31 中心残差；紧张来自模型、转换或吸收之一If the model is right there is no non-negative central M31 residual; the tension lies in the model, the conversion, or absorption 模型高估、线-宽带转换失配、或 v19 总和偏低（三种解释并列）Model over-prediction, line-to-band conversion mismatch, or a low-biased v19 sum (three live explanations) 300 kpc RASS 图建立本地 MW 模型（O4）A 300-kpc RASS map to build a local MW model (O4) 计划planned 计划planned
300 kpc 图：30 kpc 以外的档案样本很薄（E021）The 300-kpc map: the archival sample beyond 30 kpc is thin (E021) O4（本地 MW 模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验）需要 30 kpc 以外的视线；样本太薄会限制图的能力O4 (a local MW model + the Local Hot Bridge test) needs sightlines beyond 30 kpc; a thin sample limits what the map can do 145 个 ObsID 里 class-A 只有 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个（30–60 kpc 为零；60–100 kpc 3 个、100–150 kpc 1 个、150–200 kpc 3 个、200–300 kpc 1 个）；全部在 b = −5° 到 −33°，无正纬度场。距离与银纬在 class A 内可分但杠杆小（Spearman ρ = +0.28，p = 0.21）Of 145 ObsIDs only 22 are class A, and just 8 lie beyond 30 kpc (zero at 30–60 kpc; 3 at 60–100, 1 at 100–150, 3 at 150–200, 1 at 200–300); all sit at b = −5° to −33°, with no positive-latitude field. Distance and b are separable within class A but the leverage is small (Spearman ρ = +0.28, p = 0.21) E022：8 个外 class-A 场的 v19 + 模型 C 拟合（N_H 需从 HI4PI 重建，8 个场在现有 8° 切片外）——30 kpc 以外第一批谱学 F 与 kT，运行中，待定；此后 PI 决定扩展目标政策（掩掉亮展源即可用 132–244 kpc 的 12 个 B 场，外样本约 ×4）E022: v19 + Model-C fits of the 8 outer class-A fields (N_H rebuilt from HI4PI; the 8 fields lie outside the current 8° cut-out) — the first spectroscopic F and kT beyond 30 kpc, running, Pending; afterwards the PI decides the extended-target policy (masking the bright extended targets would make the 12 class-B fields at 132–244 kpc usable, roughly ×4 the outer sample) E022/PI E021 完成；E022 运行中E021 done; E022 running
南北差异 0.212 ± 0.210（1.01σ）——一致性，不是非对称探测North-minus-South 0.212 ± 0.210 (1.01σ) — consistency, not an asymmetry detection 非对称上限是论文的直接结果之一；两侧半径分布不匹配（中位 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc）The asymmetry limit is one of the paper's direct results; the two sides have unmatched radius distributions (medians 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc) 总和在两侧一致；任何分量级非对称结论都需要 MW 均匀或 M31 对称假设The sum is consistent between sides; any component-level asymmetry claim needs MW-uniformity or M31-symmetry assumptions 共享径向项 + 侧向偏移的联合拟合（I013 提交门槛 1）A joint fit with a shared radial term plus a side offset (I013 submission gate 1) 计划planned 计划planned

来源：cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/insights/I033、I006、I012、I017；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E014、E016、E018a、E019、E020、E021；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节（建议，未经评审）；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1c/E022 运行与队列）；03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行。

Source: cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/insights/I033, I006, I012, I017; cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E014, E016, E018a, E019, E020, E021; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section (a suggestion, not reviewed); .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1c/E022 runs and the queue); the last rows of 03_TRUST_TABLE.md.

未来 1–4 周计划（依据 D48 与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (from D48 and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION)

E018a fluxes
图：E018a 的八个场（左：外 NW 四场；右：同期对照四场）的吸收 0.5–2 keV CGMsum 通量。黑点 = 冻结的 v19；蓝方 = 模型 A（v19 重收敛，6 个起始）；红菱 = 模型 B（A + SP 谱形自由）。0301 的流量在近简并处移动（0.975→0.56，Δstat −0.04），0601 在线能量解钉后统计量降 14.7；外四/对照四的逆方差比值从 1.295 降到 1.130（≈1σ）。 Figure: E018a's absorbed 0.5–2 keV CGMsum fluxes for the eight fields (left: the outer-NW four; right: the same-epoch control four). Black = frozen v19; blue squares = Model A (v19 re-converged, 6 starts); red diamonds = Model B (A + free SP shape). 0301's flux moves at a near-degeneracy (0.975→0.56 at Δstat −0.04), and 0601's statistic drops by 14.7 once the line energy unpins; the outer-four/control-four inverse-variance ratio falls from 1.295 to 1.130 (≈1σ).

数据：newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv（E018a，luna，Claude 已核）；比值 1.295/1.168/1.130 由本站用 v19 权重从该 CSV 复算。图由 handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py 生成。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv (E018a, luna, Claude-checked); the 1.295/1.168/1.130 ratios recomputed by this site from that CSV with v19 weights. Figure made by handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py.

E021 sky coverage
图：E021 档案清点的天区覆盖（Claude 评审时已查看）。lang 的 data/ 有 145 个 ObsID：class-A（v19 可用）22 个、class-B 114 个、class-C 9 个。class-A 按到 M31 的距离：0–30 kpc 14 个（New-ANGELS 核心样本）、30–60 kpc 0 个、60–100 kpc 3 个、100–150 kpc 1 个、150–200 kpc 3 个、200–300 kpc 1 个——30 kpc 以外只有 8 个，且全部在负银纬。 Figure: the sky coverage of E021's archival inventory (viewed by the reviewer). lang's data/ holds 145 ObsIDs: 22 class A (v19-ready), 114 class B, 9 class C. Class A by distance from M31: 14 at 0–30 kpc (the New-ANGELS core), 0 at 30–60 kpc, 3 at 60–100, 1 at 100–150, 3 at 150–200, 1 at 200–300 — only 8 beyond 30 kpc, all at negative Galactic latitude.

数据：newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv 与 class_counts.csv（E021，Hermes，已接受）。图来自 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png（评审已查看），复制入 assets/。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv and class_counts.csv (E021, Hermes, accepted). Figure from newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png (viewed by the reviewer), copied into assets/.

  1. E013 A2 v1 + toy MC（已完成）：谱联合似然在 14 主场的 v19 曲面上插值，对 N_MW、梯度、kT（0.185 keV）做 profile；无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07）。单侧 95% 上限（Δstat = 2.71，插值版）见状态页表；toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），误报率 0.069–0.086，观测上限 = toy 中位数。产出 newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/（a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv、a2_toymc_threshold.csv、a2_ul_vs_rc.png）。 E013 A2 v1 + toy MC (done): the spectral joint likelihood interpolated on the 14 primary fields' v19 surfaces, profiling over N_MW, the gradient and kT (0.185 keV); no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07). One-sided 95% UL (Δstat = 2.71, interpolated) in the state-page table; toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), false-detection rate 0.069–0.086, observed limits = the toy median. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/ (a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv, a2_toymc_threshold.csv, a2_ul_vs_rc.png).
  2. E020（已完成）：样本级重收敛（20 场，模型 A/B/C，多元起始）。模型 C（SP 谱形 + 线能量自由）下 14 场均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041（单侧 −15%）；径向斜率 0；b 梯度 Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6；外 NW/其余十 1.28 → 1.13。SP 谱形 + 线 QA 行进入系统误差网格。产出 newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/。 E020 (done): the sample-wide re-convergence (20 fields, Models A/B/C, multi-start). Under Model C (free SP shape and line energies) the 14-field mean moves 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041 (one-sided −15%); the radial slope is 0; the b gradient falls from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6; outer-NW/other-ten from 1.28 to 1.13. The "SP shape + line QA" row enters the systematic grid. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/.
  3. E019（已完成）：PSF 翼泄漏的实测——81 个孤立类点源叠加，最亮 bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；14 主场泄漏 SB 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12。产出 newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/。 E019 (done): the empirical PSF-wing leak — a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources, brightest-bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/.
  4. E021（已完成）：档案清点与 300 kpc 图设计（无拟合）——145 ObsID，class-A 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个；产出 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/（inventory.csv、DESIGN.md、天区覆盖图）。 E021 (done): the archival inventory and the 300-kpc map design (no fitting) — 145 ObsIDs, 22 class A, only 8 beyond 30 kpc; outputs newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/ (inventory.csv, DESIGN.md, the sky-coverage figure).
  5. A1c → A2 v2（运行中，下一个权威版本）：A1c（codexnim）在 E020 模型 C 下生成 14 主场的加密 kT×norm 曲面（E020 后逐场通量移动，v19 曲面上的 A2 v1 需要复核）；然后 A2 v2 在其上重跑空间似然。结果待定。 A1c → A2 v2 (running; the next authoritative version): A1c (codexnim) generates densified kT×norm surfaces for the 14 primary fields under E020's Model C (after E020 the per-field fluxes moved, so the A2 v1 limits on the v19 surfaces need rechecking); A2 v2 then reruns the spatial likelihood on them. Results Pending.
  6. E022（运行中）：8 个外 class-A 档案场的 v19 + 模型 C 拟合（N_H 从 HI4PI 重建）——30 kpc 以外第一批谱学 F 与 kT。结果待定。 E022 (running): v19 + Model-C fits of the 8 outer class-A archival fields (N_H rebuilt from HI4PI) — the first spectroscopic F and kT beyond 30 kpc. Results Pending.
  7. PI 决定（两项）：（1）D49 更新——把「≈0.25 未解释场级系统误差」换成实测的 SP 谱形系统误差（−0.15；场级散布按 E020 模型 C 表），E018b 转可选。建议（未经评审），D49 本身仍生效。（2）300 kpc 样本的扩展目标政策——掩掉亮展源后 132–244 kpc 的 12 个 B 场可用（外样本约 ×4）；若改变论文声明，需 PI 拍板。 PI decisions (two): (1) the D49 update — replace the "≈0.25 unexplained field-level systematic" with the measured SP-shape systematic (−0.15; field-to-field scatter as in E020's Model-C table), making E018b optional. Suggestion (not reviewed); D49 itself remains active. (2) the extended-target policy for the 300-kpc sample — with the bright extended targets masked, the 12 class-B fields at 132–244 kpc become usable (roughly ×4 the outer sample); if it changes the paper's claims, the PI decides.
  8. E018b（可选，视 PI 决定）：对外 NW 四场在 Virgo 按 ODF 级更严格耀斑过滤重处理，再按 v19 规则重拟。 E018b (optional, on the PI's call): reprocess the outer-NW four on Virgo with a stricter ODF-level flare filter, then refit under v19 rules.
  9. E015（排队）：M31 周围 25° 的 RASS 原生计数图（MW 纬度模型 + M31 中心项 + LHB 模板），为本地 MW 模型与 Local Hot Bridge 检验（O4）铺路。 E015 (queued): a 25° native-count RASS map around M31 (MW latitude model + an M31-centred term + an LHB template), paving the way for the local MW model and the Local Hot Bridge test (O4).
  10. E017（排队）：用 Paper I 星表重新定义源掩膜（闭掉 I013 提交门槛 5 的掩膜规则出处）。 E017 (queued): re-define the source mask from the Paper I catalogue (closes the mask-rule provenance of I013 submission gate 5).
  11. 论文讨论：把 I033 的三条科学线（总和、轮廓形状、NW 起源）与 E016/E019/E020 的新结果写进 New-ANGELS III 草稿的讨论部分；提交门槛仍按 I013。 Paper discussion: write the three I033 science lines (total, profile shape, NW origin) plus the new E016/E019/E020 results into the New-ANGELS III draft discussion; submission gates remain those of I013.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 与 21Z update）；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E019、E020、E021、E014、E016、E018a；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1c/E022 运行与队列）；newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json；cognition-os/insights/I013。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 and the 21Z update); cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E019, E020, E021, E014, E016, E018a; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1c/E022 runs and the queue); newangels3_discussion/E013_codexnim/acceptance.json; cognition-os/insights/I013.

本次更新What's new

来源：cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E019、E020、E021、E018a、E016；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48、D49 及其 update 节；cognition-os/insights/I033；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md。

Source: cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E019, E020, E021, E018a, E016; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48 and D49 with its update section; cognition-os/insights/I033; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md.

数据截至Data as of

2026-10-14T23:55Z（最新读到的来源：cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E019、E020、E021；newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv 与 a2_toymc_threshold.csv；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 update 节；cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 21Z update）；cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（23:4xZ 心跳：A1c/E022 运行中）newest source read: cognition-os/experiments/E013_joint_spatial_profile_likelihood.md (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E019, E020, E021; newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv and a2_toymc_threshold.csv; the D49-update section of cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md; cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (the 2026-10-14 21Z update); the last rows of cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the 23:4xZ heartbeat: A1c/E022 running)）