M31 CGM 工作台M31 CGM / New-ANGELS III

评审更正与新结果（Claude，2026-10-15 13:30Z）：(1) 排除半径已按 E023 表重算：Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5），β = 0.6 时 r_c ≤ 200 全部排除；EAGLE fiducial 0.51 到 r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc（β = 0.4/0.5/0.6）。旧文“≈100–150 kpc”已改。(2) E024（Hermes）完成：47 个外 B 场的四种策略——遮蔽扩展目标 +12 个方向，放宽到 8–10 ks 再 +31，加 9 个 Virgo 重提取再 +40；全部在 b < 0；NGC 147 不可用（只剩 22% 视场）。策略待 PI 决定。(3) A2 v2 初步（A1c 模型 C 曲面，9 个 norm 点）：β = 0.5 时 r_c = 4/15/30 kpc 上限 0.109/0.224/0.534，比 v19 曲面宽约 35%；网格粗，A1c 加密后定稿。
来源：newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/；newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C_base9.csv

Review correction and new results (Claude, 2026-10-15 13:30Z): (1) The exclusion radii were recomputed from the E023 table: Zhang 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≲ 125/175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5), and for all r_c ≤ 200 at β = 0.6; EAGLE fiducial 0.51 up to r_c ≲ 45/65/85 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5/0.6). The old text "≈100–150 kpc" has been changed. (2) E024 (Hermes) is done: four policies for the 47 outer class-B fields — masking extended targets adds 12 directions, relaxing to 8–10 ks adds 31 more, adding 9 Virgo re-extractions adds 40 more; all lie at b < 0; NGC 147 is unusable (22% of the field of view left). The policy awaits the PI. (3) A2 v2 preliminary (A1c Model-C surfaces, 9 norm points): at β = 0.5 the limits at r_c = 4/15/30 kpc are 0.109/0.224/0.534, about 35% looser than on the v19 surfaces; the grid is coarse and is final only after the A1c densification.
Source: newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/; newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/a2_ul_vs_rc_interp_v2C_base9.csv

目录Contents

工作台：M31 的星系周介质（New-ANGELS III）Workbench: the circumgalactic medium of M31 (New-ANGELS III)

这是什么项目？What is this project?

M31（仙女座星系）是离我们最近的大型旋涡星系。宇宙学认为星系的大部分普通物质（重子）不在星系内部，而在星系周围几十万光年的星系周介质（CGM）——百万度的稀薄气体。本项目用 XMM-Newton 的 22 个指向（proposal 080073，PI J. Li）在 M31 内晕（投影半径 10.5–30.8 kpc）逐视线测量弥漫软 X 射线发射，把「银河系前景 + M31 内晕」的总和（记号 CGMsum）测准，再用空间形状限制其中有多少属于 M31。测量已冻结（D48，2026-10-14）：14 个主样本场的 CGMsum 吸收流量为 0.965 ± 0.044（单位 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²），共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV。

M31 (Andromeda) is the nearest large spiral galaxy. Cosmology says most of a galaxy's ordinary matter (baryons) is not inside the galaxy but in the circumgalactic medium (CGM), million-degree thin gas around it. Using 22 XMM-Newton pointings (proposal 080073, PI J. Li) toward the M31 inner halo (projected radii 10.5–30.8 kpc), this project measures the diffuse soft X-ray emission sightline by sightline, pins down the sum "Milky Way foreground + M31 inner halo" (notation CGMsum), and then limits how much belongs to M31 from its spatial shape. The measurement is frozen (D48, 2026-10-14): the 14 primary fields give CGMsum absorbed flux 0.965 ± 0.044 (units 10⁻¹⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ arcmin⁻²), common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48；cognition-os/insights/I033（0.965 ± 0.044，χ²=11.99/13）。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48; cognition-os/insights/I033 (0.965 ± 0.044, χ²=11.99/13).

现在进展如何？Where does it stand?

测量冻结；v19 基线（14 场）可信；轮廓在 10.5–29 kpc 内平（χ²=11.99/13）。E013 A2 v1 完成：无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07），集中式 M31 β 晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc，MW 常数）在 R=20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限（插值版）为 0.047–0.164，toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守）。E022 完成：8 个 82–253 kpc 外档案场的 v19 拟合给出外场吸收流量加权均值 0.842 ± 0.065（内场 14 主场 0.965 ± 0.044），内禀发射量（norm，不受 N_H 影响）外/内 = 0.80 ± 0.13——10–30 kpc 相对 80–250 kpc 天空无可测 M31 超出。E023 完成：内+外联合拟合把大核 M31 晕在 20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限压到 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）（β = 0.5）——Zhang 叠加 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5)。E017a 完成：v19 掩膜盖住 95.5 % 的 Paper I 亮源。V01 独立复核：18/20 PASS（2 项仅舍入差）。A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）与 E024（外 B 场政策）在跑，结果待定。

The measurement is frozen; the v19 baseline (14 fields) is trusted; the profile is flat over 10.5–29 kpc (χ²=11.99/13). E013 A2 v1 is done: no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07), and the one-sided 95% upper limit (interpolated) on a concentrated M31 beta halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc, MW constant) at R = 20 kpc is 0.047–0.164, with toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative). E022 is done: v19-model fits of the 8 outer archival fields at 82–253 kpc give an outer absorbed-flux weighted mean of 0.842 ± 0.065 (inner 14 primaries 0.965 ± 0.044), and the intrinsic emission measure (norm, independent of N_H) gives outer/inner = 0.80 ± 0.13 — no measurable M31 excess at 10–30 kpc over the 80–250 kpc sky. E023 is done: a joint inner+outer fit limits a large-core M31 halo at 20 kpc to a one-sided 95% UL of 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) for β = 0.5 — the Zhang stack 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5). E017a is done: the v19 mask covers 95.5 % of the bright Paper I sources. V01 independent verification: 18/20 PASS (2 rounding-only). A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces) and E024 (the outer class-B policy) are running, results Pending.

还有什么没解决？What is unsolved?

① 前景与 M31 谱形几乎相同，无法按距离分解——集中核（r_c ≤ 8 kpc）已被 E013 A2 v1 压到 0.047–0.164（见状态页），大核（r_c ≥ 50 kpc）现在被 E023 首次限制（0.46–0.90 @20 kpc）；A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）在跑；② 外 NW 四场偏亮：E014 排除大尺度天空与 OMNI 太阳风；E020 进一步表明 b 梯度（Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6）与 NW 超出（比值 1.28 → 1.13）大半是固定 SP 谱形的伪迹——D49 的更新（改记为 −15% SP 谱形系统误差）建议（未经评审），待 PI 确认；③ v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形 + 线能量自由重收敛后 14 场均值 −15%（0.964 → 0.819，单侧）；④ PSF 翼泄漏实测 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12——落在 E016 的 0.12–0.32 括号内；⑤ Locatelli 预言 1.29 > 0.965（E020 后紧张更强）；⑥ 300 kpc 图：档案样本很薄——145 个 ObsID 里只有 8 个 class-A 场在 30 kpc 以外，且全部在负银纬；47 个 B 场的去留是 PI 的决定（E024 在准备）。

(i) The foreground and M31 have nearly identical spectra, so distance separation fails — the compact core (r_c ≤ 8 kpc) is already pushed to 0.047–0.164 by E013 A2 v1 (see the state page), and the large core (r_c ≥ 50 kpc) is now limited for the first time by E023 (0.46–0.90 at 20 kpc); A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces) is running; (ii) the bright outer-NW four: E014 excluded large-scale sky and OMNI solar wind; E020 further shows that the b gradient (Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6) and the NW excess (ratio 1.28 → 1.13) are mostly a fixed-SP-shape artefact — the D49 update (re-carrying it as the −15% SP-shape systematic) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI; (iii) v19 fit QA: after the re-convergence with free SP shape and line energies the 14-field mean is −15% (0.964 → 0.819, one-sided); (iv) the PSF-wing leak is 0.16 (raw) / 0.33 (null-corrected) empirically vs E016's model 0.12 — inside E016's 0.12–0.32 bracket; (v) Locatelli predicts 1.29 > 0.965 (the tension strengthens after E020); (vi) the 300-kpc map: the archival sample is thin — of 145 ObsIDs only 8 class-A fields lie beyond 30 kpc, all at negative Galactic latitude; what to do with the 47 class-B fields is the PI's call (E024 is preparing it).

下一步做什么？What do I do next?

按 编号计划：等 A1c（模型 C 曲面，运行中）→ A2 v2（并在谱曲面上重做 E023）；读 E024（47 个外 B 场的政策选项）→ PI 决定（D49 更新是否采纳；外 B 场政策）→ 外 B 场拟合；此后 E015 → E018b 视需要（可选）。E013 A2 v1 + toy MC、E019、E020、E021、E022、E023、E017a、V01 已完成。命令见 byhand。

Plan: wait for A1c (the Model-C surfaces; running) → A2 v2 (and redo E023 on spectral surfaces); read E024 (the policy options for the 47 outer class-B fields) → the PI decides (whether to adopt the D49 update; the outer class-B policy) → outer class-B fits; then E015, E018b optional. E013 A2 v1 + toy MC, E019, E020, E021, E022, E023, E017a and V01 are done. Commands at byhand.

最新骨架：流水线与各部分如何衔接Latest skeleton: the pipeline and how the parts connect

pipeline diagram
图：从 XMM 数据到 New-ANGELS III 论文的流水线。左：数据与前景输入；中：v19 逐 ObsID Sherpa 拟合；右：冻结的 CGMsum 测量与四条解释线（联合似然、NW 交叉检验、未解源、SP 谱形重拟合）。 Figure: the pipeline from XMM data to the New-ANGELS III paper. Left: data and foreground inputs; middle: the per-ObsID v19 Sherpa fit; right: the frozen CGMsum measurement and the four interpretation lines (joint likelihood, NW cross-check, unresolved sources, SP-shape refit).

来源：流程依据 cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md 与 background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py 的模型结构；数值见 cognition-os/insights/I033。

Source: the flow follows cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md and the model structure of background_spectrum_fitting_2T_basedon_obsid_v19.py; numbers from cognition-os/insights/I033.

目标表（O1–O5）Objectives (O1–O5)

目标Objective 状态Status 当前最好数值（估计器已命名）Best current number (estimator named) 趋势Trend
O1 M31 内晕方向冷视线总和（CGMsum）的测量Total cool line-of-sight emission (CGMsum) toward the M31 inner halo done 14 场逆方差平均：吸收 0.5–2 keV 流量 0.965 ± 0.044；共温 kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV（v19，局部协方差误差）14-field inverse-variance mean: absorbed 0.5–2 keV flux 0.965 ± 0.044; common kT = 0.17531 ± 0.00436 keV (v19, local-covariance errors) →冻结frozen
O2a 由轮廓形状约束集中式 M31 热晕（小核）的大小/幅度Constrain the size/amplitude of a concentrated M31 hot halo (compact core) from the profile shape provisional 谱联合似然 E013 A2 v1（14 主场，插值版单侧 95% 上限，MW 常数，kT profile）：r_c = 4 kpc 时 β=0.4/0.5/0.6 给 0.132/0.080/0.052；r_c ≤ 8 kpc 整体 0.047–0.164；Zhang 叠加预期 0.83 被排除 ≳5 倍（各 β 为 5–18 倍）。toy-MC 校准：覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），观测上限落在 toy 中位数。注意：这是 v19 模型曲面上的版本；A2 v2（E020 模型 C 曲面）待定，将是下一个权威版本Spectral joint likelihood E013 A2 v1 (14 primary fields, interpolated one-sided 95% UL, MW constant, kT profiled): at r_c = 4 kpc, β=0.4/0.5/0.6 give 0.132/0.080/0.052; over r_c ≤ 8 kpc, 0.047–0.164; the Zhang stack prediction 0.83 is excluded by ≳5x (5–18x across β). Toy-MC calibration: coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), the observed limits sit at the toy median. Note: this is the version on the v19-model surfaces; A2 v2 (on the E020 Model-C surfaces) is Pending and will be the next authoritative version ↗
O2b 约束大核 M31 热晕（r_c ≥ 50 kpc，A2 够不到的区间）Constrain a large-core M31 hot halo (r_c ≥ 50 kpc, the regime A2 cannot reach) provisional E022（外场参考）+ E023（联合拟合，22 个 v19 norm，高斯似然）：β = 0.5 时 20 kpc 单侧 95% 上限 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）；内场单独拟合在 r_c ≥ 50 kpc 无约束力（r_c=100 时 3.61，r_c=200 时 13.8）。Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5)，EAGLE fiducial 0.51 到 r_c ≈ 45–85 kpc (β = 0.4–0.6)；r_c = 200 处无排除。E022 的内禀 norm 外/内 = 0.80 ± 0.13（两组样本统计均匀），平 M31 项 ≲ 0.4（≈2σ）。下一步：在谱曲面（A1c + 外场曲面）上重做 E023E022 (the outer reference) + E023 (joint fit of the 22 v19 norms, Gaussian likelihood): for β = 0.5 the one-sided 95% UL at 20 kpc is 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200); inner-only fits are uninformative at r_c ≥ 50 kpc (3.61 at r_c=100, 13.8 at r_c=200). Zhang 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5) and the EAGLE fiducial 0.51 up to r_c ≈ 45–85 kpc (β = 0.4–0.6); nothing is excluded at r_c = 200. E022's intrinsic norm outer/inner = 0.80 ± 0.13 (both samples statistically homogeneous), and a flat M31 term is ≲ 0.4 (≈2σ). Next: redo E023 on spectral surfaces (A1c + outer surfaces) ↗
O3 外 NW 亮场的起源Origin of the bright outer-NW fields E014 + E018a + E020 done E020（20 场，模型 C = SP 谱形 + 线能量自由，Claude 已从 fits_per_field.csv 复核）：外 NW 四场/其余十场比值 v19 1.28 → 模型 C 1.13（≈1σ，与对照持平）；b 梯度 Δχ² 从 6.2 降到 1.3–2.6；模型 C 下径向斜率 −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc（0）。SP 谱形对 14 场均值是单侧 −15% 系统误差（0.964 → 0.819；逐场 C/v19 = 0.56–1.00，从不高于 1）。E014（D49）：RASS 比值 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28（无大尺度结构）；OMNI 无窗口超 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹（非 SWCX）。D49 更新（改记 SP 谱形系统误差、E018b 转可选）建议（未经评审），待 PIE020 (20 fields, Model C = free SP shape and line energies, Claude-verified from fits_per_field.csv): the outer-NW four / other-ten ratio falls from v19's 1.28 to Model C's 1.13 (≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls); the b gradient falls from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6; under Model C the radial slope is −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc (0). The SP shape is a one-sided −15% systematic on the 14-field mean (0.964 → 0.819; per-field C/v19 = 0.56–1.00, never above 1). E014 (D49): RASS ratio 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28 (no large-scale sky); no OMNI window above 4e8 cm⁻² s⁻¹ (not SWCX). The D49 update (re-carrying the SP-shape systematic, E018b optional) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI ↗
O4 银河系前景模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验（300 kpc 图）MW foreground model + Local Hot Bridge test (300-kpc map) E021/E022/E023 完成；E024 运行中E021/E022/E023 done; E024 running E021 档案清点完成：lang 的 data/ 有 145 个 ObsID，class-A（v19 可用：双 MOS、Thin/Medium、≥10 ks、无亮展源、D25 外）仅 22 个，其中 30 kpc 以外只有 8 个（30–60 kpc 为零；全部在 b = −5° 到 −33°，无正纬度覆盖）。E022 已把这 8 个外场拟合出来（外 IVW 0.842 ± 0.065；内禀外/内 0.80 ± 0.13），E023 用它们首次限制了大核晕（见 O2b）。30 kpc 以外还有 47 个 B 场；掩掉亮展源（以及放宽曝光/单相机等）可扩大外样本——E024 正在准备政策选项表（P1–P4，含代价与银纬覆盖），PI 决定。Locatelli 模型在 M31 足迹投影 1.290 vs 测量 0.965（残差 −0.326，模型紧张）；E020 后 14 场均值 0.819，紧张更强；Ueda 0.312、HaloSat 0.565E021 archival inventory done: lang's data/ holds 145 ObsIDs, of which only 22 are class A (v19-ready: both MOS, Thin/Medium, ≥10 ks, no bright extended target, outside D25), and only 8 of those lie beyond 30 kpc (zero at 30–60 kpc; all at b = −5° to −33°, no positive-latitude coverage). E022 has now fitted those 8 outer fields (outer IVW 0.842 ± 0.065; intrinsic outer/inner 0.80 ± 0.13), and E023 used them to limit the large-core halo for the first time (see O2b). Beyond 30 kpc there are a further 47 class-B fields; masking the bright extended targets (and relaxing exposure/single-camera cuts) would enlarge the outer sample — E024 is preparing the policy-option table (P1–P4, with costs and latitude coverage) for the PI to decide. Locatelli model projected at the M31 footprint: 1.290 vs measured 0.965 (residual −0.326, a model tension); after E020 the 14-field mean is 0.819, strengthening the tension; Ueda 0.312, HaloSat 0.565 ↗
O5 New-ANGELS III 论文The New-ANGELS III manuscript draft 16 页内部稿完成（AASTeX，5 表 3 图）；提交门槛见 I013（径向+侧向联合似然、边界感知区间、系统误差网格等）A 16-page internal draft exists (AASTeX, 5 tables, 3 figures); submission gates in I013 (shared radial-plus-side likelihood, boundary-aware intervals, the systematic grid, ...) ↗

来源：O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 与 I033；O2a cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节；插值表 a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv、覆盖率 a2_toymc_threshold.csv）；O2b cognition-os/experiments/E022（correction 1 节；outer_inner_weighted_means.json）与 E023（limits.csv）；O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020（比值、斜率与 −15% 由 fits_per_field.csv 复核）与 E014、cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节；O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021（inventory.csv）、E022、E023、E024 BRIEF（.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/BRIEF.md）、00_AI_BRIEFING.md（D42–D46 数值）与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md；O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 与 paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md。

Source: O1 cognition-os/insights/I012 and I033; O2a cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections; the interpolated table a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv, the coverage a2_toymc_threshold.csv); O2b cognition-os/experiments/E022 (the correction-1 section; outer_inner_weighted_means.json) and E023 (limits.csv); O3 cognition-os/experiments/E020 (ratios, slope and the −15% verified from fits_per_field.csv) and E014, cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section; O4 cognition-os/experiments/E021 (inventory.csv), E022, E023, the E024 BRIEF (.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/BRIEF.md), 00_AI_BRIEFING.md (D42–D46 numbers) and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md; O5 cognition-os/insights/I013 and paper_apj_v19_cgmsum_draft/README_draft_status_and_submission_gaps.md.

未解问题表Open problems

问题Problem 为什么重要Why it matters 当前最佳假设Best current hypothesis 下一个检验Next test 负责Owner 状态Status
MW 与 M31 气体同温同形，EPIC 谱无法按距离分解（I006）MW and M31 gas share temperature and spectral shape; EPIC spectra cannot separate them by distance (I006) 决定论文能声明什么：只能测总和 CGMsum，任何分量归属都需要外部假设Determines what the paper can claim: only the sum CGMsum is measured; any component split needs external assumptions 分离只能来自空间形状（半径衰减、南北对称）与外部前景约束Separation can only come from spatial shape (radial decline, N/S symmetry) and external foreground constraints E013 A2 v1 已给出谱级上限（见状态页插值表）；A2 v2（E020 模型 C 曲面上的重跑，A1c 生成中）待定E013 A2 v1 has delivered the spectral-level limit (see the interpolated table on the state page); A2 v2 (the rerun on the E020 Model-C surfaces, being generated by A1c) is Pending E013 A1c/A2 v2 运行中A1c/A2 v2 running
轮廓平（χ²=11.99/13；E020 模型 C 下同样平，斜率 −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc）：M31 集中晕（r_c ≤ 8 kpc）在 20 kpc ≤0.047–0.164（A2 v1 插值版），远低于 Zhang 叠加 0.83The profile is flat (χ²=11.99/13; still flat under E020's Model C, slope −0.0005 ± 0.006 /kpc): a concentrated M31 halo (r_c ≤ 8 kpc) is ≤0.047–0.164 at 20 kpc (A2 v1, interpolated), far below the Zhang stack 0.83 M31 内晕热气要么比叠加预期暗几倍，要么在 10–30 kpc 内分布很平（核 ≳30 kpc）M31's inner-halo hot gas is either several times fainter than the stacked expectation, or flat over 10–30 kpc (core ≳30 kpc) 「平/大核」这条退路现在也被限制：E023 用 8 个 82–253 kpc 外场把大核晕压到 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）@20 kpc（β=0.5），Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5)；r_c = 50 时上限 0.318–0.601（A2 v1，内场单独）已被联合拟合取代the "flat/large-core" escape route is now limited too: using the 8 outer fields at 82–253 kpc, E023 pushes the large-core halo to 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) at 20 kpc (β=0.5), excluding Zhang 0.83 up to r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5); the A2 v1 inner-only limit at r_c = 50 (0.318–0.601) is superseded by the joint fit A2 v2（模型 C 曲面）复核集中核上限；E023 在谱曲面上重做大核上限；E016 的未解源项空间上平，不削弱形状上限A2 v2 (on the Model-C surfaces) re-checks the compact-core limit; E023 is redone on spectral surfaces for the large-core limit; E016's unresolved-source terms are spatially flat, so they do not weaken the shape limit E013 provisional
外 NW 四场偏亮（v19 外四/其余十 = 1.28）The four outer-NW fields are bright (v19 outer-four/other-ten = 1.28) 若为银河系纬度结构，会挤占 M31 的解释空间；若为 SWCX 则是时间效应；若为仪器/软质子则影响系统误差预算If it is Galactic-latitude structure it eats into the M31 budget; if SWCX it is a time effect; if instrumental/soft-proton it changes the systematic budget E020：大半是固定 SP 谱形的伪迹——模型 C 下比值降到 1.13（≈1σ，与对照持平），b 梯度 Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6。E014 已排除大尺度天空（RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28）与 OMNI 太阳风。D49 目前仍生效（0.25 未解释场级系统误差）；D49 更新提案（改记为 −15% SP 谱形系统误差，E018b 转可选）建议（未经评审），待 PI 确认E020: mostly an artefact of the frozen SP shape — under Model C the ratio falls to 1.13 (≈1σ, no significant difference from the controls) and the b gradient from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6. E014 excluded large-scale sky (RASS 0.91 ± 0.12 vs XMM 1.28) and OMNI solar wind. D49 remains active (the 0.25 unexplained field-level systematic); the D49-update proposal (re-carrying the −15% SP-shape systematic, E018b optional) is a Suggestion (not reviewed), awaiting the PI PI 决定是否采纳 D49 更新；若采纳，E018b（Virgo ODF 级更严耀斑过滤）转可选the PI decides whether to adopt the D49 update; if adopted, E018b (stricter ODF-level flare filter on Virgo) becomes optional E020/PI closing
v19 拟合 QA：SP 谱形过刚、仪器线能量钉边（E018a/E013）——E020 已量化v19 fit QA: the SP shape was too rigid and line energies pinned (E018a/E013) — now quantified by E020 决定系统误差网格里必须有哪一行（I013 提交门槛 3）；不修会以场级伪迹污染科学结论Decides which row the systematic grid must contain (I013 submission gate 3); unfixed, it contaminates science with field-level artefacts E020（20 场，多元起始）：SP 谱形自由在 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 改善 8–16；线能量自由在 0401 改善 8.5、1001 改善 15。模型 C 下 14 场逆方差均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041（−15%，单侧：逐场 C/v19 = 0.56–1.00，从不高于 1；最大降幅 0301 0.975→0.57、0901 0.93→0.52、1101 0.89→0.59）。模型 C 的剖面误差在固定 kT 下算得（低估），4 场半宽仅 0.15–0.27 σ_v19E020 (20 fields, multi-start): freeing the SP shape improves 0401/0501/0901/1101/2101 by 8–16; freeing line energies improves 0401 by 8.5 and 1001 by 15. Under Model C the 14-field inverse-variance mean is 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041 (−15%, one-sided: per-field C/v19 = 0.56–1.00, never above 1; largest drops 0301 0.975→0.57, 0901 0.93→0.52, 1101 0.89→0.59). Model C's profile errors were computed at fixed kT (an underestimate); 4 fields have half-widths only 0.15–0.27 σ_v19 A1c/A2 v2（模型 C 曲面上的上限重跑，运行中）承接该行；D49 更新提案把 −0.15 记为系统误差行（待 PI）A1c/A2 v2 (the limit rerun on the Model-C surfaces; running) carries this row; the D49-update proposal records −0.15 as the systematic row (awaiting the PI) E020 E020 完成E020 done
PSF 翼泄漏：掩膜亮源的翼落在提取区里（E016）PSF-wing leak: the wings of masked bright sources fall inside the extraction region (E016) E016 里它是最大的单一未解源项（模型估计 ≈0.12 F [最大 0.32]，主要是幂律）；若实测偏大，会压低「仅气体」的总和并改变系统误差预算In E016 it is the single largest unresolved-source term (model estimate ≈0.12 F [max 0.32], mostly power law); if the empirical value is larger it lowers the gas-only total and changes the systematic budget E019（已完成）：123 个源相机测量里的 81 个孤立类点源叠加——只有最亮 bin（中位 1.2e-14 cgs）可用：f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；King 模型对同样椭圆给 14.3%。14 主场的逐场泄漏 SB：0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正） vs E016 模型 0.12（高括号 0.22）；共享标度误差 ≈ ±0.14。泄漏是幂律型、空间上平——不改变 M31 形状上限；对总量是又一个向下项（主要落在幂律/CXB 项，不在 APEC）E019 (done): a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources out of 123 source-camera measurements — only the brightest bin (median 1.2e-14 cgs) is usable: f_leak = 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; the King model gives 14.3% for the same ellipses. Per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries: 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12 (high bracket 0.22); the shared-scale error is ≈ ±0.14. The leak is power-law-like and spatially flat — it does not change the M31 shape limit; for the total it is one more downward term (mostly in the power-law/CXB term, not the APEC) 暗 bin 低于零点底噪（椭圆外净计数为负），不可用；2801（E016 异常掩膜标记）在 1.06 > F，0101 在 0.50 ≈ Fthe faint bins sit below the background floor (net counts out of the ellipse are negative), unusable; 2801 (an anomalous mask, E016 flag) is at 1.06 > F and 0101 at 0.50 ≈ F E019 E019 完成E019 done
Locatelli MW 模型在 M31 方向预言 1.29 > 测量 0.965The Locatelli MW model predicts 1.29 > the measured 0.965 toward M31 若模型对，则无正的 M31 中心残差；紧张来自模型、转换或吸收之一If the model is right there is no non-negative central M31 residual; the tension lies in the model, the conversion, or absorption 模型高估、线-宽带转换失配、或 v19 总和偏低（三种解释并列）Model over-prediction, line-to-band conversion mismatch, or a low-biased v19 sum (three live explanations) 300 kpc RASS 图建立本地 MW 模型（O4）A 300-kpc RASS map to build a local MW model (O4) 计划planned 计划planned
300 kpc 图：30 kpc 以外的档案样本很薄（E021）The 300-kpc map: the archival sample beyond 30 kpc is thin (E021) O4（本地 MW 模型 + Local Hot Bridge 检验）需要 30 kpc 以外的视线；样本太薄会限制图的能力O4 (a local MW model + the Local Hot Bridge test) needs sightlines beyond 30 kpc; a thin sample limits what the map can do 145 个 ObsID 里 class-A 只有 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个（30–60 kpc 为零；60–100 kpc 3 个、100–150 kpc 1 个、150–200 kpc 3 个、200–300 kpc 1 个）；全部在 b = −5° 到 −33°，无正纬度场。距离与银纬在 class A 内可分但杠杆小（Spearman ρ = +0.28，p = 0.21）。E022 已完成这 8 个场的拟合：外 IVW 0.842 ± 0.065，外场散布大（χ² 23/7，MW 斑块给约 ±0.12 底噪）；内禀 norm 外/内 0.80 ± 0.13（两组均统计均匀）Of 145 ObsIDs only 22 are class A, and just 8 lie beyond 30 kpc (zero at 30–60 kpc; 3 at 60–100, 1 at 100–150, 3 at 150–200, 1 at 200–300); all sit at b = −5° to −33°, with no positive-latitude field. Distance and b are separable within class A but the leverage is small (Spearman ρ = +0.28, p = 0.21). E022 has fitted these 8 fields: outer IVW 0.842 ± 0.065, with large outer scatter (χ² 23/7; MW patchiness imposes a floor of about ±0.12); the intrinsic norm outer/inner is 0.80 ± 0.13 (both samples homogeneous) E024（运行中，待定）：47 个外 B 场的政策选项表——按阻断原因分类（仅亮展源／曝光 8–10 ks／缺产品需 Virgo 重提取／Thick 滤片／单相机），P1–P4 逐级放宽并给出每级的新增方向数、代价（v19 拟合数、Virgo 重提取数）与银纬覆盖；此后 PI 决定 → 外 B 场拟合 → 在更大样本上重做 E023E024 (running, Pending): a policy-option table for the 47 outer class-B fields — blocking reasons grouped (bright extended target only / 8–10 ks exposure / missing products needing Virgo re-extraction / Thick filter / one camera), with P1–P4 progressively relaxed, each level's added directions, cost (v19 fits, Virgo re-extractions) and latitude coverage; then the PI decides → outer class-B fits → E023 redone on the larger sample E024/PI E021/E022 完成；E024 运行中E021/E022 done; E024 running
源掩膜的出处缺口（I013 提交门槛 5）：v19 掩膜规则不可复原（经验上是 2–4.5 keV 硬带掩膜）The source-mask provenance gap (I013 submission gate 5): the v19 mask rule is unrecoverable (empirically a hard-band 2–4.5 keV mask) 审稿人会问「掩膜怎么来的、漏了多少」；E017a 现在给出实测答案a referee will ask "where did the mask come from and what does it miss"; E017a now answers it empirically E017a（已完成）：v19 掩膜按 0.5–2 keV 流量掩住 Paper I 亮源（>1e-14）的 95.5 %（233/244；11 个未掩，6 个主场亮源完备度低于 0.95）；未掩亮源量级 ≈ 11 × ~2e-14 摊在 ≈ 4200 arcmin² ≈ 0.05（1e-15 单位，多为幂律/CXB 型，小的向上偏置）。掩膜椭圆 8784 个里 87 % 没有 10″ 内的 Paper I 源——v19 掩膜来自更深的逐观测探测表（E016：有效 ML ≈ 0.55），切掉更多（多为暗源/伪源），花的是天空面积不是偏差E017a (done): by 0.5–2 keV flux the v19 mask covers 95.5 % of the bright Paper I sources (>1e-14; 233/244; 11 unmasked, 6 primary fields below 0.95 bright completeness); the unmasked-bright order of magnitude is ≈ 11 × ~2e-14 spread over ≈ 4200 arcmin² ≈ 0.05 (1e-15 units, mostly power-law/CXB-like, a small upward bias). Of the 8784 mask ellipses, 87 % have no Paper I source within 10″ — the v19 mask comes from a much deeper per-observation detection list (E016: effective ML ≈ 0.55), so it cuts many more (mostly faint or spurious) regions; it costs sky area, not bias E017b（低优先，除非审稿人要）：只用 Paper I 星表重建掩膜（需 Virgo 重提取），对比 v19 的 skyarea 与通量E017b (low priority unless a referee asks): rebuild the mask from the Paper I catalogue only (needs re-extraction on Virgo), compare skyarea and flux with v19 E017a E017a 完成E017a done
南北差异 0.212 ± 0.210（1.01σ）——一致性，不是非对称探测North-minus-South 0.212 ± 0.210 (1.01σ) — consistency, not an asymmetry detection 非对称上限是论文的直接结果之一；两侧半径分布不匹配（中位 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc）The asymmetry limit is one of the paper's direct results; the two sides have unmatched radius distributions (medians 19.28 vs 14.97 kpc) 总和在两侧一致；任何分量级非对称结论都需要 MW 均匀或 M31 对称假设The sum is consistent between sides; any component-level asymmetry claim needs MW-uniformity or M31-symmetry assumptions 共享径向项 + 侧向偏移的联合拟合（I013 提交门槛 1）A joint fit with a shared radial term plus a side offset (I013 submission gate 1) 计划planned 计划planned

来源：cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md（2026-10-14 D48 块）；cognition-os/insights/I033、I006、I012、I017；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E014、E016、E018a、E019、E020、E021、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E017a；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节（建议，未经评审）；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1c/E024 运行与队列）；03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行。

Source: cognition-os/02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md (2026-10-14 D48 block); cognition-os/insights/I033, I006, I012, I017; cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E014, E016, E018a, E019, E020, E021, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E017a; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section (a suggestion, not reviewed); .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1c/E024 runs and the queue); the last rows of 03_TRUST_TABLE.md.

未来 1–4 周计划（依据 D48 与 02_CURRENT_QUESTION）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (from D48 and 02_CURRENT_QUESTION)

E018a fluxes
图：E018a 的八个场（左：外 NW 四场；右：同期对照四场）的吸收 0.5–2 keV CGMsum 通量。黑点 = 冻结的 v19；蓝方 = 模型 A（v19 重收敛，6 个起始）；红菱 = 模型 B（A + SP 谱形自由）。0301 的流量在近简并处移动（0.975→0.56，Δstat −0.04），0601 在线能量解钉后统计量降 14.7；外四/对照四的逆方差比值从 1.295 降到 1.130（≈1σ）。 Figure: E018a's absorbed 0.5–2 keV CGMsum fluxes for the eight fields (left: the outer-NW four; right: the same-epoch control four). Black = frozen v19; blue squares = Model A (v19 re-converged, 6 starts); red diamonds = Model B (A + free SP shape). 0301's flux moves at a near-degeneracy (0.975→0.56 at Δstat −0.04), and 0601's statistic drops by 14.7 once the line energy unpins; the outer-four/control-four inverse-variance ratio falls from 1.295 to 1.130 (≈1σ).

数据：newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv（E018a，luna，Claude 已核）；比值 1.295/1.168/1.130 由本站用 v19 权重从该 CSV 复算。图由 handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py 生成。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E018a_luna/fits_per_field.csv (E018a, luna, Claude-checked); the 1.295/1.168/1.130 ratios recomputed by this site from that CSV with v19 weights. Figure made by handbook/hermes_figscripts/make_fig_e018a.py.

E021 sky coverage
图：E021 档案清点的天区覆盖（Claude 评审时已查看）。lang 的 data/ 有 145 个 ObsID：class-A（v19 可用）22 个、class-B 114 个、class-C 9 个。class-A 按到 M31 的距离：0–30 kpc 14 个（New-ANGELS 核心样本）、30–60 kpc 0 个、60–100 kpc 3 个、100–150 kpc 1 个、150–200 kpc 3 个、200–300 kpc 1 个——30 kpc 以外只有 8 个，且全部在负银纬。 Figure: the sky coverage of E021's archival inventory (viewed by the reviewer). lang's data/ holds 145 ObsIDs: 22 class A (v19-ready), 114 class B, 9 class C. Class A by distance from M31: 14 at 0–30 kpc (the New-ANGELS core), 0 at 30–60 kpc, 3 at 60–100, 1 at 100–150, 3 at 150–200, 1 at 200–300 — only 8 beyond 30 kpc, all at negative Galactic latitude.

数据：newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv 与 class_counts.csv（E021，Hermes，已接受）。图来自 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png（评审已查看），复制入 assets/。

Data: newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/inventory.csv and class_counts.csv (E021, Hermes, accepted). Figure from newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/fig_e021_sky_coverage.png (viewed by the reviewer), copied into assets/.

  1. E013 A2 v1 + toy MC（已完成）：谱联合似然在 14 主场的 v19 曲面上插值，对 N_MW、梯度、kT（0.185 keV）做 profile；无 M31 分量被偏好（Δstat ≤ 1.07）。单侧 95% 上限（Δstat = 2.71，插值版）见状态页表；toy-MC 覆盖率 0.975–0.984（略保守），误报率 0.069–0.086，观测上限 = toy 中位数。产出 newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/（a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv、a2_toymc_threshold.csv、a2_ul_vs_rc.png）。 E013 A2 v1 + toy MC (done): the spectral joint likelihood interpolated on the 14 primary fields' v19 surfaces, profiling over N_MW, the gradient and kT (0.185 keV); no M31 component is preferred (Δstat ≤ 1.07). One-sided 95% UL (Δstat = 2.71, interpolated) in the state-page table; toy-MC coverage 0.975–0.984 (slightly conservative), false-detection rate 0.069–0.086, observed limits = the toy median. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E013_A2_claude/ (a2_ul_vs_rc_interp.csv, a2_toymc_threshold.csv, a2_ul_vs_rc.png).
  2. E020（已完成）：样本级重收敛（20 场，模型 A/B/C，多元起始）。模型 C（SP 谱形 + 线能量自由）下 14 场均值 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041（单侧 −15%）；径向斜率 0；b 梯度 Δχ² 6.2 → 1.3–2.6；外 NW/其余十 1.28 → 1.13。SP 谱形 + 线 QA 行进入系统误差网格。产出 newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/。 E020 (done): the sample-wide re-convergence (20 fields, Models A/B/C, multi-start). Under Model C (free SP shape and line energies) the 14-field mean moves 0.964 → 0.819 ± 0.041 (one-sided −15%); the radial slope is 0; the b gradient falls from Δχ² 6.2 to 1.3–2.6; outer-NW/other-ten from 1.28 to 1.13. The "SP shape + line QA" row enters the systematic grid. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E020_luna/.
  3. E019（已完成）：PSF 翼泄漏的实测——81 个孤立类点源叠加，最亮 bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6%（原值）／20.4 ± 7.8%（零点校正）；14 主场泄漏 SB 0.16（原值）／0.33（零点校正）vs E016 模型 0.12。产出 newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/。 E019 (done): the empirical PSF-wing leak — a stack of 81 isolated point-like sources, brightest-bin f_leak 10.3 ± 8.6% raw / 20.4 ± 7.8% null-corrected; per-field leak SB over the 14 primaries 0.16 raw / 0.33 null-corrected vs E016's model 0.12. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E019_codexnim/.
  4. E021（已完成）：档案清点与 300 kpc 图设计（无拟合）——145 ObsID，class-A 22 个，30 kpc 以外仅 8 个；产出 newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/（inventory.csv、DESIGN.md、天区覆盖图）。 E021 (done): the archival inventory and the 300-kpc map design (no fitting) — 145 ObsIDs, 22 class A, only 8 beyond 30 kpc; outputs newangels3_discussion/E021_hermes/ (inventory.csv, DESIGN.md, the sky-coverage figure).
  5. E022（已完成）：8 个外 class-A 档案场（82–253 kpc）的 v19 + 模型 C 拟合（N_H 从 HI4PI 重建，与 v19 差 0.05–0.31 %）。v19 结果被接受为外场参考：外 IVW 0.842 ± 0.065；内禀 norm 外/内 0.80 ± 0.13；模型 C 仅作系统变体（其外场剖面误差 χ² 168/7，不能用于加权平均）。产出 newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/。 E022 (done): v19 + Model-C fits of the 8 outer class-A archival fields (82–253 kpc; N_H rebuilt from HI4PI, agreeing with v19 to 0.05–0.31 %). The v19 results are accepted as the outer reference: outer IVW 0.842 ± 0.065; intrinsic norm outer/inner 0.80 ± 0.13; Model C is a systematic variant only (its outer profile errors give χ² 168/7, unusable for a weighted mean). Outputs newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/.
  6. E023（已完成）：22 个 v19 norm（14 内 + 8 外）的联合 MW 常数 + M31 β 拟合（高斯似然，局部协方差误差）——大核晕在 20 kpc 的单侧 95% 上限 0.46（r_c=50）／0.59（r_c=100）／0.90（r_c=200）（β = 0.5）；Zhang 0.83 被排除到 r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5)；无 M31 分量被偏好（Δχ²(A=0) ≤ 1.3）。Claude 已独立复算 r_c = 50/100 的上限，数值一致。产出 newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv。下一步：在谱曲面上重做。 E023 (done): a joint MW-constant + M31-beta fit of the 22 v19 norms (14 inner + 8 outer; Gaussian likelihood on local-covariance errors) — the large-core halo's one-sided 95% UL at 20 kpc is 0.46 (r_c=50) / 0.59 (r_c=100) / 0.90 (r_c=200) for β = 0.5; Zhang 0.83 is excluded up to r_c ≈ 125–175 kpc (β = 0.4/0.5); no M31 term is preferred (Δχ²(A=0) ≤ 1.3). Claude independently recomputed the r_c = 50/100 limits and got the same values. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E023_luna/limits.csv. Next: redo it on spectral surfaces.
  7. E017a（已完成）：Paper I 星表与 v19 掩膜的交叉匹配（14 主场，MOS1）——亮源（>1e-14）掩住 95.5 %（233/244，11 个未掩）；8784 个掩膜椭圆里 87 % 无 10″ 内的 Paper I 源（掩膜来自更深的逐观测探测表）。掩膜出处缺口就此闭合。产出 newangels3_discussion/E017a_luna/。 E017a (done): the Paper I catalogue cross-matched against the v19 masks (14 primary fields, MOS1) — 95.5 % of bright sources (>1e-14) masked (233/244, 11 unmasked); of the 8784 mask ellipses 87 % have no Paper I source within 10″ (the masks come from a deeper per-observation detection list). The mask-provenance gap is thereby closed. Outputs newangels3_discussion/E017a_luna/.
  8. V01（已完成）：E020/E022 数值的独立复核（luna，直接从四个 CSV 复算，不用任何先前报告）——20 个标量比较 18 个 PASS；2 个「FAIL」只是 E020 加权径向斜率的舍入差（复算 −0.0005348 vs 声称 −0.0005；0.006051 vs 0.0061；四位小数下一致，超出 0.5 % 严格容差）。产出 newangels3_discussion/V01_luna/verify_table.csv。 V01 (done): an independent verification of the E020/E022 numbers (luna, recomputed directly from the four CSVs, no prior reports as inputs) — 18 of 20 scalar comparisons PASS; the 2 "FAILs" are rounding-only differences in E020's weighted radial slope (recomputed −0.0005348 vs claimed −0.0005; 0.006051 vs 0.0061; identical at four decimals, outside the strict 0.5 % tolerance). Outputs newangels3_discussion/V01_luna/verify_table.csv.
  9. A1c → A2 v2（运行中，下一个权威版本）：A1c（codexnim）在 E020 模型 C 下生成 14 主场的 kT×norm 曲面（第三次重启 03:26Z，去掉加密以满足时间预算，ETA ~12:45Z；09:57Z 时 7/14）；然后 A2 v2 在其上重跑空间似然，并在谱曲面上重做 E023。结果待定。 A1c → A2 v2 (running; the next authoritative version): A1c (codexnim) generates kT×norm surfaces for the 14 primary fields under E020's Model C (third restart 03:26Z, densification dropped to meet the time budget, ETA ~12:45Z; 7/14 at 09:57Z); A2 v2 then reruns the spatial likelihood on them, and E023 is redone on spectral surfaces. Results Pending.
  10. E024（运行中）→ PI 决定 → 外 B 场拟合：E024（Hermes）为 47 个外 class-B 场准备政策选项表（P1 掩亮展源 → P2 加 8–10 ks → P3 加 Virgo 重提取 → P4 加单相机；每级给出新增方向数、代价与银纬覆盖）。结果待定；此后 PI 决定，选定的 B 场进入 v19 拟合。 E024 (running) → PI decision → outer class-B fits: E024 (Hermes) prepares the policy-option table for the 47 outer class-B fields (P1 mask the extended targets → P2 add 8–10 ks → P3 add Virgo re-extractions → P4 add one-camera fields; each level's added directions, cost and latitude coverage). Results Pending; the PI then decides, and the selected class-B fields enter v19 fits.
  11. PI 决定（两项，均开放）：（1）D49 更新——把「≈0.25 未解释场级系统误差」换成实测的 SP 谱形系统误差（−0.15；场级散布按 E020 模型 C 表），E018b 转可选。建议（未经评审），D49 本身仍生效。（2）47 个外 class-B 场的政策——E024 正在准备 P1–P4 选项表（新增方向数、代价、银纬覆盖）；若改变论文声明，需 PI 拍板。 PI decisions (two, both open): (1) the D49 update — replace the "≈0.25 unexplained field-level systematic" with the measured SP-shape systematic (−0.15; field-to-field scatter as in E020's Model-C table), making E018b optional. Suggestion (not reviewed); D49 itself remains active. (2) the policy for the 47 outer class-B fields — E024 is preparing the P1–P4 option table (added directions, costs, latitude coverage); if it changes the paper's claims, the PI decides.
  12. E018b（可选，视 PI 决定）：对外 NW 四场在 Virgo 按 ODF 级更严格耀斑过滤重处理，再按 v19 规则重拟。 E018b (optional, on the PI's call): reprocess the outer-NW four on Virgo with a stricter ODF-level flare filter, then refit under v19 rules.
  13. E015（排队）：M31 周围 25° 的 RASS 原生计数图（MW 纬度模型 + M31 中心项 + LHB 模板），为本地 MW 模型与 Local Hot Bridge 检验（O4）铺路。 E015 (queued): a 25° native-count RASS map around M31 (MW latitude model + an M31-centred term + an LHB template), paving the way for the local MW model and the Local Hot Bridge test (O4).
  14. E017b（低优先，排队）：只用 Paper I 星表重建源掩膜（需 Virgo 重提取），对比 v19 的 skyarea 与通量——E017a 的交叉匹配已把掩膜出处缺口闭合，此项仅在审稿人要求时做。 E017b (low priority, queued): rebuild the source mask from the Paper I catalogue only (needs re-extraction on Virgo) and compare skyarea and flux with v19 — E017a's cross-match has closed the mask-provenance gap, so this runs only if a referee asks.
  15. 论文讨论：把 I033 的科学线（总和、轮廓形状——现在含大核限制、NW 起源）与 E016/E019/E020/E022/E023/E017a 的新结果写进 New-ANGELS III 草稿的讨论部分；提交门槛仍按 I013。 Paper discussion: write the I033 science lines (total; profile shape — now including the large-core limit; NW origin) plus the new E016/E019/E020/E022/E023/E017a results into the New-ANGELS III draft discussion; submission gates remain those of I013.

来源：cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-14 D48 与 2026-10-15 03Z update）；cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E019、E020、E021、E014、E016、E018a、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E017a；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 及其 update 节；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（A1c/E024 运行与队列）；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/BRIEF.md；cognition-os/insights/I013。

Source: cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (2026-10-14 D48 and the 2026-10-15 03Z update); cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E019, E020, E021, E014, E016, E018a, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E017a; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D49 with its update section; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the A1c/E024 runs and the queue); .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-e024-outer-classB-policy/BRIEF.md; cognition-os/insights/I013.

本次更新What's new

来源：cognition-os/experiments/E013（A2 v1 与 toy-MC 节）、E019、E020、E021、E018a、E016、E022（correction 1 节）、E023、E017a；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md；cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48、D49 及其 update 节；cognition-os/insights/I033；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md。

Source: cognition-os/experiments/E013 (the A2 v1 and toy-MC sections), E019, E020, E021, E018a, E016, E022 (the correction-1 section), E023, E017a; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md; cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D48 and D49 with its update section; cognition-os/insights/I033; .agent/LOOP_STATE.md.

数据截至Data as of

2026-10-15T10:05Z（最新读到的来源：cognition-os/experiments/E022_outer_classA_spectral_fits.md（correction 1 节）、E023_joint_norm_beta_inner_outer.md、E017a_catalogue_mask_xmatch.md；newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/outer_inner_weighted_means.json 与 outer_fields_measurements.csv、E023_luna/limits.csv、E017a_luna/per_field.csv；.agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md；cognition-os/insights/I033（E022 + E023 段）；cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md 末行；cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md（2026-10-15 03Z update）；.agent/LOOP_STATE.md（09:57Z 心跳：A1c 7/14、E024 运行中）newest source read: cognition-os/experiments/E022_outer_classA_spectral_fits.md (the correction-1 section), E023_joint_norm_beta_inner_outer.md, E017a_catalogue_mask_xmatch.md; newangels3_discussion/E022_luna/outer_inner_weighted_means.json and outer_fields_measurements.csv, E023_luna/limits.csv, E017a_luna/per_field.csv; .agent/jobs/2026-10-15-v01-verify-e020-e022/REPORT.luna.md; cognition-os/insights/I033 (the E022 + E023 paragraph); the last rows of cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md; cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md (the 2026-10-15 03Z update); .agent/LOOP_STATE.md (the 09:57Z heartbeat: A1c 7/14, E024 running)）